It's that time again though to be fair this month was going to be a tricky month no matter how long I waited to do this post. Next month should be better since I should have a larger choice of shows with more than 3 episodes of ratings to go on.

So as I've stated in the April and May posts, I picked 10 cable shows that are currently airing and haven't already been officially renewed or canceled to make predictions on. I made one small change this month and reevaluated an old prediction of one show (It's the only one that truly needed to be changed). I will try to update this post with decisions that come in but if you don't see a show on this list that you may care about then check my cable show scorecard (I'll write up one for this month sometime towards the end of the month).

1. Tanisha Gets Married (Oxygen)- This show is averaging 590,000 viewers which wouldn’t be so bad on Oxygen except for 2 things; the first being how high the premiere was (1.073 million) and the second being how low the most recent episode was (334,000). As the weeks pass I grow less confident about this show getting the Love Games treatment.

Verdict: 35% chance of renewal

2. Tattoo School (TLC)- TLC is not a network known for megahit shows, however most of its shows have ratings that all fall in the same general area. This show is an exception and a bad one at that. Averaging 525,000 viewers on this network pretty much says this show is going to be canceled seeing it is well below all of their other shows.

Verdict: 5% chance of renewal

3. Mrs. Eastwood and Company (E!)- Sometimes we forget that E! hasn’t fully converted over to the Kardashian network so sometimes it’s weird to see non-Kardashian shows on there. This show is on the low end of what E! renews in general but because it got placed behind Keeping Up With the Kardashians (Their highest rated show) and not one of the spinoffs, it’s ratings look a little worse in comparison. The show returns from a 2 week break tonight and if the Kardashians rebound from its lows and this doesn’t then it’s going to be in some trouble.

Verdict: 60% chance of renewal


4. Men at Work (TBS)- It’s not very often that TBS takes a crack at launching new shows and it’s not very often when those shows aren’t of the Tyler Perry fare. In its first 4 episodes it has averaged 2.2 million viewers and a 1.1 in the 18-49 demo and hasn’t fallen very far from its premiere. I don’t know if that’s enough to get an immediate mega order from TBS (30+ episodes) but for now it does look good enough for at least another season.

Verdict: 80% chance of renewal


5. Pawn Stars (History)- This isn’t really just History’s highest rated show, it’s also currently the highest rated reality show on cable TV (In viewers it will stay that way for a while as its last 5 episodes have averaged 5.6 million viewers . The return of Teen Mom could challenge its average 1.9 demo though). It’s not as beastly as it was last year but it also shows no signs of dying out so barring some event not related to ratings, it’s coming back.

Verdict: 100% chance of renewal

6. Common Law (USA)- I don’t talk about USA shows very often mostly because they all follow the same ratings format (high total viewers, somewhat disappointing demo but renewed until they are ready to end). With this show (and #7) they are different because neither one of their total viewer numbers are stellar but the demo might just earn it another season seeing it’s a Friday show.

Verdict: 65% chance of renewal

7. Fairly Legal (USA)- This show is the veteran show between its Friday night partner in Common Law. It had a fairly dismal (by USA standards anyway) showing 4 weeks ago (1.8 million, 0.4 demo) but since then it’s begun to stage a comeback that USA will probably deem as an acceptable level to consider a renewal.
Verdict: 65% chance of renewal

8. Around the World in 80 Plates (Bravo)- This show is performing below what Bravo is happy with for their non-Real Housewives shows (generally 800k is acceptable unless the show stars Kathy Griffin). The last 2 episodes of this show have just begun to creep near that 800,000 viewer threshold but the weak performance of older episodes could keep this show from eventually scoring a renewal if the final 5 episodes don’t continue to show improvement.

Verdict: 45% chance of renewal

9. The Killing (AMC)- There was a time earlier in the season where this show showed a little bit of promise. There was also a time earlier this season where this show looked as if it were dying. Its ratings were never fantastic but when you’re a show that doesn’t have great ratings (i.e. The Walking Dead) or critical acclaim and hype (i.e. Mad Men) you most often get left out in the cold. It needs to do well for its final 2 episodes.

Verdict: 50% chance of renewal

10. The Pauly D Project (MTV)- I made a prognostication on this show back in April after airing its first 2 episodes. It feels like a ridiculously long time ago but it was because its ratings were good then. They are trash now but doing a little better than Punk’d. I’m at the point where I can’t say that its chances are that much better or worse than that of Punk’d or America’s Best Dance Crew so I’m reevaluating my decision based on what has transpired.

Verdict: 55% chance of renewal

Update: As of 6/27/2012, Men at Work has been renewed for a second season.

Update 2: See the list for July, August, September, October and November here.

Update 3: As of 7/27/2012, The Killing has been canceled.

Update 4 (9/14/12): This is not official by any means just yet but this is fairly reliable source that assesses the current state of USA's shows (Or if you don't like clicking links as it pertains to the 2 shows here it says Common Law is unlikely to return but not yet 100% canceled while Fairly Legal has only a 50-50 shot. When I wrote this post in June both shows were still early in their runs [~4-6 episodes in] and in the weeks following this post neither show made any type of remarkable ratings improvement so I can understand why 1) there is such a long delay in making a decision and 2) why both show's chances have diminished since June. So there If I'm wrong on both I'm just wrong. I've said before that I won't change what I have originally written because on this matter it is better to be wrong than to just come back days, weeks or months later and make changes just to make myself look better. It's not fair to those of you who choose to read these posts.)

Update 5: As of 10/31/12, Common Law has been canceled.

Update 6: As of 11/2/12, Fairly Legal has been canceled.

Update 7:  11/7/12: History will be airing new episodes of Pawn Stars and will air them season 6 episodes. Therefore the season that just began on Monday (11/5) would technically be a renewal although no public announcement was made.

Update 8: 12/1/12: There are strong reports that AMC has brokered a deal with Netflix to revive The Killing. Nothing is 100% official at the moment but if an announcement is made, reports are that a third season would return to AMC in May with some sort of deal that would also offer the episodes through Netflix as well.

Update 9: As of 1/15/13, AMC has officially announced their decision to revive The Killing.

Update 10: [7/3/13] After 1 calendar year of inactivity from the end of the seasons, both The Pauly D Project and Tattoo School are officially recognized as canceled.

Update 11: [7/31/13] After 1 calendar year of inactivity from the end of the seasons, Tanisha Gets Married, Around the World in 80 Plates and Mrs. Eastwood & Company are officially recognized as canceled.