Wednesday, October 10, 2012

10 Cable Show Renewal Chances: October 2012

Here it is. The October list with 8 new shows and 2 older ones that really begged to be redone (I only choose to redo predictions if the ratings have changed enough to make me feel that something really needs to be said. If a show gets a little better or worse and I'm not compelled to say anything or the show ends before the new list comes around I'm more likely to just let what I said before stand). Of course you can read all of the older predictions and updates here and you can check out the most recent scorecard here.

1. Real Housewives of Miami (Bravo)- I stand firmly behind my belief that this should not have been renewed. Now Bravo is paying the price for it and every week the numbers get a little bit more grim (most recent episode received 847,000 viewers). It’s still a ways off from its series low (715,000 for the season 1 reunion) but these are not good numbers. If this weren’t a Real Housewives show they would barely be acceptable at this level on Bravo so now its numbers are going to have to start increasing by a lot and very quickly too or else it will get the axe.

Verdict: 30% chance of renewal

2. Breaking Amish (TLC)- I think TLC may have thought this show would have been a moderate success for them but they have to be surprised at how well this show is doing seeing as its numbers are better than Here Comes Honey Boo Boo and that show gets much more media attention. The show does seem to be a little lead-in dependent (slipping back to 2.437 million this Sunday) but I can’t see TLC not renewing this show.

Verdict: 90% chance of renewal

3. Basketball Wives LA (VH1)- Monday’s episode put Basketball Wives LA’s season average to 1.458 million viewers through 5 episodes and for me that is below what I believe VH1 feels is acceptable for a Monday show. While VH1 doesn’t have too many shows outside of Mondays that get great ratings, they experience the opposite on Mondays. They have too many Monday (especially 8pm Monday) shows and it is not a necessity to keep Basketball Wives LA. Since the shows that follow it are lead-in dependent (more on that for #7) this is dragging the whole night down and I can see this getting canceled if the numbers stay like this (1.198 million for Monday’s episode).

Verdict: 45% chance of renewal

4. Long Island Medium (TLC)- This show has built quite a loyal fanbase that offers TLC the luxury of not having to do too much outside promotion while the show isn’t airing. Because the fans always come back the ratings are quite good (often performing between 2.5 and 3 million viewers on average). It’s a quiet hit show and sometimes that’s the best position a show can be in and it’s basically a solid lock for renewal.

Verdict: 95% chance of renewal

5. Sons of Anarchy (FX)- It ended last season as FX’s highest rated show of 2011 and in 2012 it has returned to assume that throne once again. FX continues to have mixed success in the scripted arena but Sons of Anarchy was the one show they could continue to count on year after year. Though it’s getting a little bit old I don’t believe FX is ready to send the show off just yet (They also don’t have a suitable drama replacement but they will be watching to see how American Horror Story performs when it returns next week).

Verdict: 95% chance of renewal

6. Real Housewives of NYC- I had to come back and revisit my old prediction because this show is 1) nearing the end of its season and 2) has made a noticeable amount of progress. In the beginning of the season ratings were low. They weren’t dangerously low but certainly low enough to cause some concern. Since then 2 things have happened. The ratings have improved (not dramatically but at least back to an acceptable level) and Real Housewives of Miami has premiered. Take that as you will but this is getting renewed.

Verdict: 85% chance of renewal

7. T.I. & Tiny: The Family Hustle (VH1)- In 6 episodes this season the ratings have declined every single week. Normally that would be a bad thing, scratch that it is a bad thing. However that doesn’t fully apply to this show. This show has the benefit of 2 extraordinarily high rated episodes and that is what is keeping this otherwise lead-in dependent show afloat (I'll be posting the season 1 ratings for this show sometime after Thanksgiving. The difference between certain weeks is shocking). It’s possible that out of the current crop of VH1’s this could be the only one that sees another season. Time will tell but this show still has way too far to fall even with that big cushion to be in any serious danger.

Verdict: 80% chance of renewal

8. Alphas (Syfy)- When I wrote on this show last month the show was just coming off of a 2 week break (personally I’m not a fan of those. More often they hurt shows than help). Before the break the ratings were struggling but they had started to perk up a little bit. Since the break the ratings have slid (About 600k viewers and 0.1 in the demo with the exception of this Monday’s episode) and they have gotten to dangerously low levels (Monday’s episode reaching 1.118 million viewers and a 0.5 demo). Syfy has shown that they are uncomfortable with renewing a scripted show just barely hovering over 1 million viewers so it’s prospects for renewal are getting dimmer.

Verdict: 40% chance of renewal

9. Flipping Out (Bravo)- Bravo’s Tuesday programs don’t always get the attention that shows on other nights get but that doesn’t mean they aren’t expected to deliver either. Since a lot of their Tuesday shows have a habit of turning in something just south of 1 million viewers Bravo has to be more than satisfied with Flipping Out this season (averaging about 1.2 million viewers and 0.5 in the demo over the last 4 weeks). To me it appears that Bravo has at least one night that needs to be worked on and since this isn’t it the show looks to be pretty safe to me.

Verdict: 85% chance of renewal.

10. Rehab With Dr. Drew (VH1)- Over the last 4 years, Celebrity Rehab has always been the Teflon show for VH1. This year VH1 decided to bench the celebrity version and see how the format works with everyday people. So far the show is proving that it does not have the same spark as the celebrity version but it also hasn’t completely crashed given VH1’s Sunday numbers this year. Though its current ratings (averaging 573,000 viewers through 5 episodes) aren’t begging to be canceled, they also don’t make a very good case for renewal either and VH1 is going to have to decide which (if any) one of their recent still undecided Sunday shows (Tough Love, Mob Wives: Chicago and Big Ang) deserve to get saved and this show is in the middle of that pack.

Verdict: 40% chance of renewal

Update 1: As of 11/2/12, TLC has renewed Long Island Medium for a fourth season.

Update 2: See the list for November, December, January, February and March here.

Update 3: A helpful commenter so nicely pointed out that Sons of Anarchy was already renewed for a 6th season. The renewal occurred February 2012 and the new season will have 13 episodes to be aired in 2013 (Assume it will return either late summer or early fall).

Update 4: As of 1/16/13, Syfy has canceled Alphas.

Update 5: As of 2/21/13, VH1 has renewed T.I. & Tiny: The Family Hustle for a third season.

Update 6: As of 2/25/13, TLC has renewed Breaking Amish for a second season.

Update 7: As of 4/2/13, Bravo has renewed Real Housewives of Miami for a third season.

Update 8: As of 4/2/13, Bravo has renewed Real Housewives of NYC for a sixth season.

Update 9: As of 4/2/13, Bravo has renewed Flipping Out for a seventh season.

Update 10: As of 4/3/13, TLC has renewed Breaking Amish for a second season and greenlit a spinoff series due in May.

Update 11: (12/31/13) After one calendar year of inactivity from the end of the season, Rehab with Dr. Drew is recognized as officially canceled.

Update 12 (Final Update): As of 1/10/14, VH1 has renewed Basketball Wives: LA for a third season.


Anonymous said...

BREAKING AMISH!!!!, this is the best show ever

Anonymous said...

Sons of Anarchy was renewed for season six (2013) midway through season four (2011) when FX penned a guaranteed two year deal with an optIon for season seven (showrunner, Kurt Sutter's stated complete story arc is a seven season tale) provided seasons five and six didn't tank. So, as of Oct 12 that one was a lock, and with its highest rated season ever as of Dec 2012, season six would have to take a major nose dive not to be renewed for a seventh season.

Silverstar2154 said...

You're right. Sons of Anarchy was definitely renewed. Don't know how I forgot to update that here. I know I updated it on something else though. I need to go back and check the date on when it came in because it was not long after I wrote this.

Anyway for the next season and any seasons after this, the age of the show and fatigue will probably be the likely issue when the show ends. I don't think the ratings will slip to the point where FX will cancel it. Someone is probably going to call it quits first.

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