Monday, December 10, 2012

10 Cable Show Renewal Chances: December 2012

It might have taken 2 redos but somehow there are 10 shows on this list. Now I have to figure out what kind of trickery I can do to get 10 shows on next month's list because right now I only have 2 in mind (and they would have been on this month's list if I hadn't thought ahead). Anyway you can see the list for previous months here (IIRC the June post is almost 100% updated. There may be only 1 or 2 shows that don't have a final decision attached to them).

1. The Wedding Band (TBS)- when I first heard that TBS was going to dump this show off on Saturday nights I thought for sure that it was because they didn’t really like how it turned out but still felt obligated to air all of its episodes. It’s still quite early in the season but the ratings really aren’t that bad for Saturday (the episode 2 weeks ago got 1.415 million and 0.7 in the demo). It’s unclear what if any hopes TBS had for this show but I don’t think it would hurt them to go for more episodes if the ratings continue to remain stable.

Verdict: 65% chance of renewal

2. The Houstons: On Our Own (Lifetime)- When I wrote on this show last month the ratings weren’t in a good place. Up until the last 2 weeks, the ratings still weren’t in a very good place so I’m not redoing this prediction on solely the ratings of this show. I’m doing them in comparison to the other 2 Lifetime shows on this list (Abby’s Ultimate Dance Competition and Project Runway: All Stars). Unlike the other 2 shows, it’s not a spinoff so there’s no original show to compare it to and the ratings for the last 2 weeks (4 episodes) now put the show in the same general area as the other 2 shows so it’s chances improve only because it hasn’t set itself apart in a bad way from the other 2 shows.

Verdict: 50% chance of renewal

3. Catfish: The TV Show (MTV)- This show is a pleasant surprise for MTV. It has gone above and beyond what MTV could have hoped for because not only is it making do with a weaker Teen Mom, it’s keeping up with Teen Mom even as an 11pm show. MTV hasn’t had very much luck at pointing to shows that they can call a legitimate hit this year (Only Teen Wolf and Awkward truly fit that bill because Snooki & JWOWW was suspect to me) so as long as logistically possible to do another season (since it is mostly a documentary series based on a movie) it will have one.

Verdict: 85% chance of renewal

4. Marrying The Game (VH1)- I’m not really sure how many episodes this season has (if it’s 6 the finale is next week, if it’s 8 or 10 then it’s not ending until January since Christmas Eve & New Year’s Eve are on Mondays this year and VH1 is going to skip at least 1 of those weeks). I have seen enough to know that its ratings are only slightly lower than Chrissy & Mr Jones (This show is averaging 1.640 million viewers through 4 episodes. Chrissy & Mr. Jones averaged 1.690 million for the whole season). While I don’t believe it will surpass its predecessor, I also don’t believe it will fall back far enough that VH1 has a legitimate reason to save one over the other so if they want another season of this then they will get it because the numbers are there.

Verdict: 75% chance of renewal

5. Teen Mom 2 (MTV)- If MTV wasn’t doing so horribly this year I would say that a 30-40% drop in ratings from one season to the next would be a huge red flag that a show is nearing its end. With this show that assessment would not be accurate. This show (and Catfish) are going to have to do for them because with Jersey Shore making its exit and new seasons of Teen Wolf and Awkward still being months off they need to be encouraged by something and as long as this keeps pulling in 2 million viewers every week, this will be it.

Verdict: 85% chance of renewal

6. Ice Loves Coco (E!)- The first 2 seasons of this show had a crutch. That crutch was called Khloe & Lamar. This season no longer has that crutch and the ratings have plummeted (the last 4 episodes have averaged 635,000 viewers). It’s true that E! can’t depend on anything unless it is or is being helped by the Kardashians but 3 seasons is a respectable run for a show like this so I wouldn’t be surprised to see it end.

Verdict: 30% chance of renewal

7. Start-Ups: Silicon Valley (Bravo)- Bravo gave this show the 2nd best lead-in they have (behind Real Housewives of Beverly Hills). Bravo also gave it 4 episodes to prove its worth and while RHBH has seen an early season growth spurt, this show stumbled out of the gate and never improved (the premiere got 634,000 viewers and it hasn’t gotten back there since). Just last week, Bravo moved the show to Tuesdays and the ratings were slashed in half (301,000 viewers) so there is now no hope of it coming back. It had its chance and Bravo is not going to make the effort to try to save it (Besides, its hard enough to try to spin one flop show :: cough :: RHOM :: cough :: and there isn't enough of that to go around for 2).

Verdict: 5% chance of renewal

8. Project Runway All-Stars (Lifetime)- I said this in a weekly ratings post not too long ago but there are 2 ways to look at this show. If you look at this show on its own merits alone then it deserves a renewal. If you compare it to Project Runway then it is a flop. Now I’ve added a third factor which is the 2 other bubble shows that join it (The 2 other Lifetime shows on this list). When you add the third factor, this is the highest rated show of the three and it is also the most stable of the three. The issue here is that it is also the oldest of the three (both are 1st season shows and this is on its 2nd) and it didn’t exactly come swinging out of the gate last season so it may be on a shorter leash than the other 2. For now I can’t say that this show has a better shot than the other 2 but it will air quite a few episodes in January whereas the Houstons are now done and Abby’s Ultimate Dance Competition is nearing the end of its season as well.

Verdict: 50% chance of renewal

9. Duck Dynasty (A&E)- This show was already doing better than season 1 but the last 3 episodes from this half of the season went on a monster tear (6.452 million and a 3.0 demo for Wednesday’s episode, 4.926 million [2.2 demo] and 4.710 million [2.0 demo] for the two episodes last Wednesday). The next batch of episodes to come in 2013 will only be the remainder of the ordered season 2 episodes but it would be ridiculous to think that a season 3 isn’t on the horizon with numbers like that (I find it so odd now that when one scripted and reality show fall off there’s another scripted and reality sleeper right there to take its place now).

Verdict: 100% Chance of renewal

10. Abby’s Ultimate Dance Competition (Lifetime)- When this season started it was looking like it was going to be another Dance Moms: Miami. This show isn’t doing as bad as that one but it still hasn’t solidified itself as a hit. Like Project Runway All Stars, it is a spinoff stuck in the shadow of its much more successful originator. If Lifetime feels that they have to consider all three of its bubble shows in order to decide what comes back then this show could go either way (its ratings are better than the Houstons but worse than Project Runway All Stars). If they don’t take the circumstances around any of their other shows into consideration and only want to try to paint Dance Moms as a successful franchise with at least one moderately successful spinoff under its belt then this will get the nod and come back for another season. I’m not going to figure out which method of thinking they are going to take.

Verdict: 50% chance of renewal

Update 1: As of 12/19/12, MTV has renewed Catfish: The TV Show for a second season.

Update 2: See the list for January, February and March here.

Update 3: As of 1/22/13, TBS has canceled The Wedding Band.

Update 4: As of 1/28/13, A&E has renewed Duck Dynasty for a third season.

Update 5: As of 2/4/13, MTV has renewed Teen Mom 2 for a fourth season which will premiere in 2 weeks.

Update 6: As of 6/3/13, Lifetime has renewed Project Runway: All Stars for a third season.

Update 7: As of 7/7/13, VH1 has renewed Marrying The Game for a second season.

Update 8: As of 8/6/13, Lifetime has renewed Abby's Ultimate Dance competition for a second season.

Update 9: (12/31/13) After one calendar year of inactivity from the end of the season, The Houstons: On Our Own is recognized as officially canceled.

Update 10 [Final Update]: (2/1/14) After one calendar year of inactivity from the end of their respective seasons, Start-Ups: Silicon Valley and Ice Loves Coco are recognized as officially canceled.


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