Sunday, March 10, 2013

10 Cable Show Renewal Chances: March 2013


I wasn’t very impressed with the crop of shows I ended up picking this month. Maybe the shows suck or maybe I’m just very moody but as you can tell I am quite pessimistic this month compared to previous months (Maybe that’s just what I need to do around here though).

1. Monday Mornings (TNT)- Dallas is middling in its new Monday timeslot. No this is not about Dallas (that comes later) but that’s the lead-in for this show. So yea those 0.7 demos for Dallas might kinda suck but those 0.3 demos for this show really suck. Perhaps TNT named the show Monday Mornings because that’s the only time of the whole entire week where they can feel hopeful about this show because Tuesday afternoons have been a disaster and nobody will be surprised when this ends and TNT says that they are not going to renew this show.

Verdict: 5% chance of renewal

2. Mob Wives 3 (VH1)- When I did this in January I made a call from just the 1st episode. Since then the ratings haven’t come close to that first episode and the numbers have slipped below 1 million viewers twice. Admittedly the show is not as strong as the first 2 seasons but it’s not on life support either. I still just can’t see VH1 not giving this another season because they know they don’t have anything they can air on Sundays that will come close to getting the numbers this gets (1.168 million average through 8 episodes) and at the moment other than Wicked Single (an 11pm show that I do not expect to do well) they have absolutely nothing in the pipeline for the spring or early summer to air on Sundays (Their last 2 spring schedule announcements have all been for Monday shows).

Verdict: 65% chance of renewal

3. The Face (Oxygen)- As much as I look at these ratings and want to say it’s a flop I just can’t. Oxygen put a lot of effort into promoting this show and behind Bad Girls Club it looks like just another disaster with horrible retention. However, Oxygen has shown time and again that if a show they like can at least meet them halfway and manage to stay over 500,000 viewers or show some signs of growth (this is averaging 510,000 through 4 episodes) then they will see what strings they can pull to spin those numbers into a positive for them.

Verdict: 55% chance of renewal

4. Dallas (TNT)- Back to this show now. At the end of season 1 the numbers were ok. They weren’t strong, just ok. Then TNT had the bright idea to change the night of this show and the numbers dipped a little more in season 2. The last four episodes have all hovered between 2.4-2.8 million viewers and seem to be stuck at a 0.7 demo (the episode 4 weeks ago had a 0.8 demo). It’s not bad enough to be canceled but now that the show is going through wrapping up the biggest storyline of the franchise one has to wonder how long of a future there really is with this reboot. Alas that question will have to be answered at a later date because I think this will still get another despite having 8 episodes left to air for this season.

Verdict: 70% chance of renewal

5. La La’s Full Court Life 3 (VH1)- I think the fate of this show goes beyond it’s numbers (averaging 1.221 million through 6 episodes). To be frank I think that the fate of this show lies within whatever VH1’s true intentions for this show was. If the show was just a placeholder until they could transition into something else then the numbers justify not renewing this show because airing 2 episodes a week for 5-6 weeks looks like a burnoff to me. If the intention was to test the viability of a third hour on Mondays then this can go either way because the numbers alone don’t really deserve another season yet it’s exactly the same as what reruns of Love & Hip Hop have been doing in this slot as well which would mean that it’s not a failure. Perhaps VH1 will see how the next shows in line (either Master of the Mix or season 3 of Family Hustle. They haven’t exactly differentiated which show will permanently occupy the 10pm hour yet) fare before calling this one.

Verdict: 50% chance of renewal

6. Kourtney & Kim Take New York (E!)- If any other show not at all affiliated with the Kardashian name were pulling between. 1.3-1.5 million a week on E! there would be no discussion necessary for the fate of that show because it would be renewed no questions asked. This show here is basically the lowest rated Kardashian spinoff ever. It’s not doing phenomenally and yet it’s stable and still delivering numbers that E! can’t turn their noses up at. I don’t know if it gets renewed as-is but it may be repackaged yet again and I’m sure that makes us all sad.

Verdict: 55% chance of renewal

7. Being Human (Syfy)- I’m not sure what happened to this show between this season and last season but something happened. Last season it had decent numbers. Nothing to really write home about but nothing to be ashamed of. This season it is totally different. The season started averaging a 0.5 demo but in the last couple of weeks it has slipped to a 0.4 demo and struggles just to hover near 1 million viewers (the last 2 weeks have been under 1 million). Syfy recently canceled Alphas getting numbers slightly better than this. However this show is the better performer of the three Monday shows on now (it airs with Lost Girl and Continuum). This show doesn’t have the advantage of youth (if renewed it would be for season 4) or some kind of in house deal in place (Continuum does) to keep things going plus its British originator is also wrapping up its run. This show is going to need some kind of miracle or extenuating factor that has nothing to do with ratings to get renewed.

Verdict: 45% chance of renewal

8. America’s Supernanny (Lifetime)- This show cheated death with me once on the scorecard (because Lifetime took an agonizingly long time to renew the show). It’s not going to cheat death twice. The first season of this show averaged 1 million viewers which isn’t impressive but considering Lifetime’s reality woes, it's good enough. This season started the same way but the numbers began to slip. Then it’s my understanding that they put the show on a short hiatus and then moved the show to Wednesdays where the ratings have declined even further (Last 3 episodes from oldest to most recent have gotten 651k, 566k and 484k). Those Wednesday numbers are a sure enough sign for me to know that Lifetime is going to stay silent for good on this one because I don’t see it getting renewed.

Verdict: 10% chance of renewal

9. Justified (FX)- It wasn’t actually my intention to go over this show again. The ratings fell off a little since January but not below where it was last season. However since my first choice for an FX show has already been renewed (The Americans) this is only to hold a spot so I’m upgrading its status from January and I’m still wondering why the hell FX chose to renew The Americans first (not that it didn’t deserve it’s renewal. It was just too early). This show is basically the next in line at FX to get its papers for next season anyway.

Verdict: 80% chance of renewal

10. Black Ink Crew (VH1)- In a way I get the feeling that VH1 is delighted with this show. I don’t believe they expected this show to be a major hit. I also don’t think they expected the show to fit as well as it does with Love & Hip Hop either. It has its ups and downs and no its not a major hit show but I see nothing in the numbers (averaging 1.623 million through 9 episodes) that would make me say that VH1 needs to cancel this. What I do wonder though is how VH1 thinking when it comes to their 9pm Monday shows. It appears they are getting to a point where they have far too many to handle and the undecided ones that have aired thus far all appear to be pulling the same numbers whether it’s 30 minutes or an hour. For that reason alone it loses points with me but not enough for me to say its in bad shape.

Verdict: 70% chance of renewal

Update 1: As of 3/28/13, FX has renewed Justified for a fifth season.

Update 2: As of 4/8/13, Oxygen has renewed The Face for a second season.

Update 3: As of 4/10/13, Syfy has renewed Being Human for a fourth season.

Update 4: As of 4/30/13, TNT has renewed Dallas for a third season.

Update 5: As of 5/10/13. TNT has canceled Monday Mornings

Update 6: As of 6/26/13, VH1 has renewed La La's Full Court Life for a fourth season.

Update 7: As of 8/27/13, VH1 has renewed Black Ink Crew for a second season.

Update 8: As of 11/7/13, VH1 has renewed Mob Wives for a fourth season.

Update 9: (3/26/14) I have no reason to believe that Kourtney & Kim Take New York will return in its current format however, E! has greenlit a new Kardashian spinoff titled Kourtney & Khloe Take the Hamptons.

Update 10: (4/29/14) After one calendar  year of inactivity from the end of their respective seasons, both Kourtney & Kim Take New York and America's Supernanny are officially recognized as canceled.

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