Thursday, January 10, 2013

10 Cable Show Renewal Chances: January 2013

Last month with all the shows that were ending their seasons I wondered if I would be able to find 10 shows airing more than 3 episodes that hadn’t already been decided on. Needless to say the answer was no. I had 3 shows but that wouldn’t have made an interesting post because I think all 3 will be renewed (for the record those 3 shows are Real Housewives of Atlanta, Real Housewives of Beverly Hills and Shahs of Sunset).

This month I’m doing something a little different. For this month only I’m doing something of a blind prediction. I picked 10 shows and all 10 have aired either one or two episodes to this point and I’m doing a prediction just from that. What that means is I’m also leaving the door open to redo all of those predictions (either next month or in March) and I’m also not ranking any show below 30% or higher than 70%.

So for reference here’s what this month’s scale means or you can look at some of the older posts to see other shows I have written on.

30%- Looking dire
40%- In danger
50%- Too early to call
60%- Leaning safe
70%- Looking good

1. Making Mr. Right (VH1)- When VH1 announced this show this smelled like a flop to me. It seemed like a wasted effort to put this behind Mob Wives when they have so many other shows in limbo that they haven’t made any moves on. Well the numbers are in and with only 372,000 viewers for the premiere it’s a disaster. Should this get to next month without any schedule shuffling (aka de facto cancellation) or improvement in its numbers I will be adjusting this down.

Verdict: 30% chance of renewal

2. Mob Wives (VH1)- Sure this is down from last season’s premiere but it’s way up from the reunion show and VH1 will take 1.833 million on Sunday nights. My gut tells me that this is a deceptive number and the rest of the season will probably pan out like last season but since this post isn’t taking the future into account and there’s plenty of time for that later I’m calling it as I see it right now.

Verdict: 70% chance of renewal

3. The Sisterhood (TLC)- TLC is a network that likes to throw a lot of concepts against the wall and see if it sticks. After the premiere last week I thought the show had somewhat low numbers (958,000) but not low enough to declare it dead. This week’s numbers (655,000) are an entirely different story and for TLC this is definitely flop territory.

Verdict: 40% chance of renewal

4. Love & Hip Hop (VH1)- This show came in with 2.596 million viewers which is just a tiny bit higher than last season’s opener (unless you round both numbers up and then it’s the same). So since this one episode is already higher than every episode of Basketball Wives (both cities) that aired last year I have no reason to believe that VH1 is going to part ways with it even if the numbers don’t stay here.

Verdict: 70% chance of renewal

5. Snooki & JWOWW (MTV)- This show was just there last season. It wasn’t really a flop and it wasn’t really a hit either. At 2.085 million viewers for the season 2 opener, it looks like it’s in the exact same place as last season just waiting in the wings to see if MTV’s newer offerings are worth promoting over this now veteran show.

Verdict: 60% chance of renewal

6. Justified (FX)- For the longest time I couldn’t remember why this show wasn’t in the discussion with Sons of Anarchy and American Horror Story. The total viewers were always decent (this season was a little better with 3.594 million for the premiere) but then I remembered that before last season, the demo was never all that strong. With a premiere demo of 1.3 that surely puts the show in a good place among FX shows so as long as it delivers more of the same it’s good.

Verdict: 60% chance of renewal

7. Black Ink Crew (VH1)- Had Love & Hip Hop been lower I would say that losing approximately 800,000 viewers would be a bad thing. Since this show did that and still ended up pulling 1.777 million it’s not bad and it’s so far in the same area as its other 9pm Monday predecessors. All this show has to do for the next 11 weeks is not increase the gap between it and Love & Hip Hop.

Verdict: 60% chance of renewal

8. Vanderpump Rules (Bravo)- I don’t know if Bravo had any expectations of this possibly being a standalone spinoff but if Monday’s numbers are an indication (1.853 million) then the possibility still exists. For now the show should just continue to take advantage of being nearly a perfect match with Real Housewives of Beverly Hills because numbers like that for a spinoff makes Bravo jump for joy.

Verdict: 70% chance of renewal

9. Totally T-Boz (TLC)- This show has similar numbers to The Sisterhood (937,000 and 638,000) and therefore it is pretty much in the same position. I don’t believe this is a situation where one show will get saved over the other (if that were the case then the edge goes to The Sisterhood) so unless one of these shows starts to improve then both of them are equally in trouble going forward.

Verdict: 40% chance of renewal

10. Buckwild (MTV)- I heard this show is being dubbed as the new Jersey Shore. I don’t know how true that is nor do I care to know that. What I do know is that the two episodes last week (2.581 million and 2.402 million) is a good start. It’s my guess that MTV doesn’t want 2013 to be like 2012 so they don’t want this show to start slipping after a good opening week.

Verdict: 70% chance of renewal

Update 1: As of 2/6/13, MTV has renewed Buckwild for a second season.

Update 2: See the list for February and March here.

Update 3: As of 3/28/23, FX has renewed Justified for a fifth season.

Update 4: As of 4/2/13, Bravo has renewed Vanderpump Rules for a second season (Bonus: Real Housewives of Atlanta, Real Housewives of Beverly Hills and Shahs of Sunset have also been renewed).

Update 5: (4/10/13) Following the death of Shain Gandee, MTV has rescinded their renewal of Buckwild and have decided to cancel the series. They have announced that they will air a tribute special to Shain on Sunday (April 14th) following a marathon of season 1.

Update 6: As of 4/25/13, MTV has renewed Snooki & JWOWW for a third season.

Update 7: (5/1/13) An article on details that TLC has canceled The Sisterhood.

Update 8: As of 8/27/13, VH1 has renewed Black Ink Crew for a second season.

Update 9: As of 10/7/13, VH1 has renewed Love & Hip Hop for a fourth season.

Update 10: As of 11/7/13, VH1 has renewed Mob Wives for a fourth season.

Update 11 : (2/1/14)  After one calendar year of inactivity from the end of the season, Totally T-Boz is recognized as officially canceled.

Update 12 [Final Update]: (4/2/14) After one calendar year of inactivity from the end of the season, Making Mr. Right is recognized as officially canceled.


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