Sunday, February 10, 2013

10 Cable Show Renewal Chances: February 2013

Certainly it's that time again and now that things are back to normal in the cable TV world I think I was able to pull together a good array of shows to talk about so you can either check those out, glance at previous predictions or look at the most recent scorecard.

1. Starter Wives Confidential (TLC)- Though this has only aired two episodes it is the second episode that seals this show’s fate for me. With only 399,000 viewers tuning in for last Tuesday’s episode one has to wonder how low TLC is willing to let this show go before they put an end to it. I’m not exactly sure when that will be but barring a miracle this is officially a dead show walking.

Verdict: 15% chance of renewal

2. Vanderpump Rules (Bravo)- This is one of my redos from last month. After that first episode, the ratings dropped off about 400,000 viewers and about 0.2 in the demo from its premiere numbers. The most recent episode has recovered about half of those losses (1.673 million 0.7 demo). If it’s a sign that the show has already hit bottom then the future for the show looks really bright. Now it’s a bit too early to know where the rest of the season will go but for now Bravo is sure to be satisfied with it so I won’t be surprised if this gets another season.

Verdict: 75% chance of renewal

3. Love & Hip Hop (VH1)- Love & Hip Hop is going to be renewed. Let me give you a few moments to let that sink in before I say it again. Love & Hip Hop is going to be renewed. I say this because although it’s down from last season, it currently has higher ratings than every VH1 show airing now plus all of the 2012 VH1 shows that have aired since Love & Hip Hop: Atlanta ended. Say what you want about the cast but VH1 rolled the dice to go cheap and so far it’s paying off for them.

Verdict: 90% chance of renewal

4. Bunheads (ABC Family)- Bunheads is a show that really didn’t deserve a second chance but got it anyway only because ABC Family already had another show in mind that they wanted to cancel. Now this week, ABC Family has announced the pickup of 2 new dramas and Bunheads is now the show in the back of the line for all of the currently airing dramas. It was already in some danger without the new pickups but now it appears that time is running out on a show that has yet to see 1.3 million viewers or a 0.6 demo since it returned for its winter run.

Verdict: 40% chance of renewal

5. Snooki & JWOWW (MTV)- Last month I said this show looked like it was somewhat hanging in the middle and not really distinguishing itself from the pack. A month later the same line of reasoning applies. It’s not really a hit but it’s not doing terribly either and since it hasn’t flopped on a relatively low-profile night there’s not really anything bad that anyone can say about it so it will probably get a third season.

Verdict: 75% chance of renewal

6. Making Mr. Right (VH1)- Last month I said I was going to redo this because I knew then and there that giving this show a 30% chance of renewal was way too high. Since then VH1 moved the show to Wednesdays and the ratings have tanked even further. Now through 6 episodes the show is averaging a pitiful 265,000 viewers. With only 2 episodes left I’m sure VH1 is anxious to get this dead weight off of their schedule for good.

Verdict: 5% chance of renewal

7. Archer (FX)- In the past Archer has been a fan favorite show with not so impressive ratings and it mostly skated by on the strength of FX’s patience (as it is the lone animated show on the network) combined with the collective depressed ratings of the shows around it. This season is a little different because the numbers have improved (averaging 1.512 million viewers and a 1.0 demo through 4 episodes) and it is improving from its lead-in Anger Management. Those 2 things should easily give the show another season.

Verdict: 85% chance of renewal

8. The Sisterhood (TLC)- When TLC greenlit this show last year I thought they were taking a page out of the VH1 playbook (because the original name of the show was Preacher Wives). Needless to say this show (and Starter Wives Confidential) probably should have been left to VH1’s devices because this show will not live to see a second season on TLC. Its 545,000 (and dropping) viewer average will not make TLC feel sorry for it and give it another chance.

Verdict: 10% chance of renewal

9. Real Husbands of Hollywood (BET)- BET took a risk here. They used a skit from an awards show 2 years ago and turned it into a show that can best be described as a scripted (yes this is not a reality show at all) satirical take on all of these “wives” reality shows out here. They also pushed back their scripted flagship show The Game to launch it. Well the first episode (4.146 million viewers 2.1 demo) made them look like geniuses but the next three (all hovering between 2.3-2.0 million and 1.1-1.2 demo) all look so-so. Because it’s a cable scripted show still pulling over a 1.0 demo I don’t think BET will move to cancel it but it also may not be the megahit show they were looking for either.

Verdict: 75% chance of renewal.

10. Chasing the Saturdays (E!)- Different show, same story. How many times have you seen an E! reality show get a coveted Kardashian lead-in only to do nothing with it? You can throw this show in the pile with the rest because with numbers like 917,000 (premiere), 600,000 and 617,000 viewers the people at E! know that they are going to have to keep trying to find something not named Kardashian that works on their network.

Verdict: 35% chance of renewal

Update 1: As of 2/18/13, TLC has pulled Starter Wives Confidential from the schedule with no indication of a return date (better known as de facto cancellation).

Update 2: As of 2/27/13, FX has renewed Archer for a fifth season.

Update 3: As of 3/8/13, BET has renewed Real Husbands of Hollywood for a second season.

Update 4: See the list for March here.

Update 5: As of 4/2/13, Bravo has renewed Vanderpump Rules for a second season.

Update 6: As of 4/25/13, MTV has renewed Snooki & JWOWW for a third season.

Update 7:  (5/1/13) An article on details that TLC has canceled The Sisterhood.

Update 8: As of 7/22/13, ABC Family has canceled Bunheads.

Update 9: As of 10/7/13, Love & Hip Hop has been renewed for a fourth season.

Update 10: (4/2/14) After one calendar year of inactivity from the end of the season, Making Mr. Right is officially recognized as canceled.

Update 11: (4/30/14) After one calendar year of inactivity from the end of the season, Chasing the Saturdays is officially recognized as canceled.


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