Saturday, November 10, 2012

10 Cable Show Renewal Chances: November 2012


It does not really matter that I'm up at 6am posting this. What does matter is that I have a lot to say this month and now I get to have my Saturday to myself. Don't forget to check out predictions of past months because I've made some updates since last month.

1. Chrissy & Mr. Jones (VH1)- This show is absolutely confusing to me. One week the ratings are good and then the following week they seem weak. It’s good episodes have propelled the show to have a better season average than Basketball Wives LA (by a razor thin margin I may add…1.669 million for this show and 1.612 million for Basketball Wives LA…the gap was wider earlier in the season with Chrissy having the advantage but both shows still trail Family Hustle which is averaging 2.165 million viewers this season), but its bad episodes have often placed it last among VH1’s Monday shows during certain weeks. VH1 is a little thin on Monday lead-outs and especially those of the 30 minute fare and the numbers it has posted give me no reason to believe that VH1 is going to cancel this show. As long as it isn’t off the air for a year it is all but guaranteed to return with a much better lead-in to really prove its strength as a series.

Verdict: 80% chance of renewal

2. Keyshia & Daniel: Family First (BET)- This had a strong showing for the first episode (mostly from the strength of the BET Hip Hop Awards) and the second episode was quite dismal. Since then the show has improved a little bit and seems to be somewhat on par with past BET reality shows in the same situation. I won’t say renewal is assured but BET doesn’t have very many shows to begin with and since this is their lone reality show at the moment, the numbers it’s pulling don’t justify a cancellation.

Verdict: 70% chance of renewal

3. American Horror Story: Asylum (FX)- The first 2 weeks seemed to have put this show right on pace with Sons of Anarchy but now it is beginning to slide back just a little bit. It’s numbers are still very good and performing a lot better than their Thursday block of shows so they will order a season 3 only because they will look tremendously idiotic for renewing all of those low-rated Thursday comedies (the summer ones not the ones on now) and not this.

Verdict: 95% chance of renewal

4. The Walking Dead (AMC)- Take this in for a minute. The Walking Dead is currently the highest rated show (not including NFL Football) on TV. That means broadcast and cable. This show will be renewed. No further analysis is needed. I’m guessing the show hasn’t been renewed yet because this season is 16 episodes long and we’ve only gone through about 4 (I think AMC Is also going the split season route on this show too but don’t quote me on that).

Verdict: 100% chance of renewal

5. The Houstons: On Our Own (Lifetime)- I never like the concept of these celebrity family reality shows because they are almost always exploitative. Personal biases aside, this looks like a flop to me. After its first 2 episodes pulled in 1.3 million viewers each, the ratings in the 3 episodes that followed have tanked (in order from oldest to most recent the numbers are 722,000, 689,000 and 723,000). This is once again another example of how Lifetime is better of sticking to scripted shows because outside of Project Runway (the original not the All-Stars) and Dance Moms (original version also) nothing works for them on the reality front. This isn’t working for them either.

Verdict: 35% chance of renewal

6. Couples Therapy 2 (VH1)- I am waffling on this show. I see pros with this show and I see cons as well. The pros are that it is doing better than season 1, it’s doing slightly better than Rehab With Dr. Drew (season average through 7 episodes is 583,000 viewers compared to 568,000 through 9 episodes for Rehab With Dr. Drew) and much better than Sunday Behind The Music episodes and VH1 hasn’t gone through their typical motions when they have a show they aren’t interested in keeping on air (as in cutting the amount of reruns during the week). The cons are that out of 20 shows on the year this one is still in near the bottom (ranked #15 out of 20 shows not including Marrying The Game which debuts on the 19th), it is also not doing better than the two most recent Wednesday shows (Mama Drama...which I still don’t believe will be renewed for reasons that have nothing to do with ratings and Hollywood Exes...which was renewed). Since ratings didn’t appear to be a deciding factor in renewing this show the first time it’s probably likely that the show comes back only if they find 8 people willing to do it but it’s not a hit show and it never will be.

Verdict: 50% chance of renewal

7. Underemployed (MTV)- This is the invisible MTV scripted show and after starting off pretty bad (654,000 for the premiere) its numbers have only gotten worse (402,000 on Tuesday compared to 401,000 the previous week). Its ratings are lower than every scripted show MTV has premiered this year including Inbetweeners (a show I fully believe will be canceled). I don’t have any hopes for this show and neither does MTV since they decided to abandon Tuesdays so they can launch Teen Mom 2 on Mondays (They will however schedule 3 Teen Mom 2 aftershow specials to air on Tuesdays to serve as a lead-in of some sorts. I’m not buying the logic because aftershows only do well when it airs directly behind the show it correlates to and the show has strong ratings).

Verdict: 5% chance of renewal

8. Abby’s Ultimate Dance Competition (Lifetime)- Lifetime has to have gotten the message by now that Dance Moms is not capable of being a franchise. As a standalone show it works and as long as they don’t order a truckload of episodes they can keep rolling with it. The spinoffs have to stop though because this is looking like Dance Moms: Miami and while it doesn’t seem to be shedding viewers, it’s not really adding any either so it continues to hover somewhere in between just below 900,000 viewers and 1.1 million viewers.

Verdict: 45% chance of renewal

9. Life After Top Chef (Bravo)- This show had middling premiere ratings (620,000 viewers) and episode 2 fared much worse (396,000) viewers. Bravo was hoping that the premiere of the new season of Top Chef would help this show out but with Top Chef: Seattle coming in a little below expectations (912,000) this show failed to see any real benefit that could begin to help this show’s season average and fight for a shot at renewal (Wednesday’s episode got 587,000 viewers which puts the season average at a very low 494,000 viewers).

Verdict: 10% chance of renewal

10. Basketball Wives LA (VH1)- Last month when I made my prediction this show’s ratings were on the bad side (below 1.5 million viewers for VH1 Monday shows...Sunday and Wednesday shows have a lower renewal threshold) of what I felt was appropriate for saying it deserved another season. In the 4 weeks since then the ratings have improved but not by much. While its average is above the 1.5 million viewer mark, it is still currently VH1’s lowest rated Monday show (However it can overtake Chrissy & Mr. Jones seeing that the finale for that show is Monday and this show has somewhere between 4-5 episodes left to air including the reunion). VH1 seems to be making a small push towards wanting another season now that the ratings are improving so I think it will probably be back but I don’t expect them to say anything about its fate anytime soon.

Verdict: 75% chance of renewal

Update 1: As of 11/15/12, FX has renewed American Horror Story for a third season.

Update 2: See the list for December, January, February and March here.

Update 3: As of 12/21/12, AMC has renewed The Walking Dead for a fourth season.

Update 4: As of 5/9/13, VH1 has renewed Couples Therapy for a third season.

Update 5: As of 8/6/13, Lifetime has renewed Abby's Ultimate Dance Competition

Update 6: As of 10/7/13, Chrissy & Mr. Jones has been renewed for a second season.

Update 7: (12/31/13) After one calendar year of inactivity from the end of their respective seasons, The Houstons: On Our Own, Like After Top Chef and Keyshia & Daniel: Family First are recognized as officially canceled.

Update 8: As of 1/10/14, Basketball Wives LA has been renewed for a third season.

Update 9 [Final Update]: (2/1/14)  After one calendar year of inactivity from the end of the seasons, Underemployed is recognized as officially canceled.

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