So I tried this out last month and things went over pretty well. I think I will start making this a monthly thing because there really isn’t much out there on the internet in terms of how good or bad cable shows (especially cable reality shows) are doing and what their chances of getting renewed are.


Following the same format as the first post I’ll pick 10 random, currently airing cable shows (I’ll also branch out so I’ll be picking shows that I notice but don’t necessarily post the ratings for on Bourgy) that have not already been renewed or canceled and try to predict their chances (See all the most recent renewed, canceled and undecided cable shows here). As with the first post I will try to make updates as I recognize or remember them.

I should note that all predictions are made with the ratings I have seen in the time leading up to this post. I do not change predictions based on weekly fluctuations so if I’m right you will see my original prediction and if I’m wrong you will still see my original prediction.

1. Real Housewives of New Jersey (Bravo)- This show has once again come in being Bravo’s #2 show (Behind Real Housewives of Atlanta). It’s still early but so far so good and I fully expect the show to live on to see another season.

Verdict: 95% chance of renewal

2. Tough Love: New Orleans (VH1)- Every year VH1 always has one show that earns a renewal that doesn’t really deserve it. Last year this was that show (This year it’s Stevie TV). Fortunately for Tough Love its season average this year (774,000 viewers through 4 episodes) has already managed to surpass last season’s average (694,000) so a couple more strong weeks like this most recent one and season 5 is a go.

Verdict: 65% chance of renewal

3. Punk’d (MTV)- Like Beavis and Butthead this was another MTV reboot that started really well and fizzled out toward the end. Like Beavis and Butthead, MTV could take their sweet time making a final decision on this show (MTV still hasn’t made a call on Beavis and Butthead)

Verdict: 50% Chance of renewal

4. Don’t Be Tardy For the Wedding (Bravo)- After 4 episodes on a relatively weak night for Bravo this show is still doing fairly well for them. There may be questions about if it is worth it for Bravo to continue on the solo show path with Kim Zolciak but in my opinion the only question Bravo will have is what capacity (either stay on RHOA, do another season of the solo show or both) should they keep her in as she has proven she is valuable enough to not completely sever ties with them.

Verdict: 70% chance of renewal

5. La La’s Full Court Life 2 (VH1)- The show got off to an acceptable start but for the last 2 episodes its ratings have dipped to the point where it’s on par with season 1. Since the average is what matters to VH1 and there are only 2 episodes left to air its renewal is all but guaranteed.
Verdict: 95% chance of renewal

6. America’s Best Dance Crew (MTV)- This show got a pretty raw deal from MTV this season by getting moved to Wednesdays. It’s proven that it’s not a good night for the show but the only thing keeping its hopes alive is that all of MTV’s other shows are in the same area ratings wise.

Verdict: 55% chance of renewal

7. Dance Moms: Miami (Lifetime)- This show had quite the promising start (1.551 million for the premiere) just like the show it was spun off from, but in a span of 5 episodes it has fallen far and fast (698,000 viewers for the most recent episode) so now it’s not looking great to return.

Verdict: 40% chance of renewal

8. Best Ink (Oxygen)- This show truly didn’t get off to a great start and yet it has had 2 disappointing weeks, 2 horrible weeks and 2 weeks where it showed signs of hope . Still the season average for this show (445,000 viewers) is below what Oxygen has shown they are comfortable with renewing so I wouldn’t get my hopes up about seeing this show return.

Verdict: 30% chance of renewal

9. Money from Strangers (MTV)- Although MTV hasn’t had a very good go of things the last 2 months that still doesn’t change the fact that this is currently their lowest rated show. That combined with the fact that this show airs on Mondays (a notorious MTV trouble spot) means there probably isn’t a good reason to save this show.

Verdict: 40% chance of renewal

10. Swamp People (History)- This is the History Channel’s second highest rated show behind Pawn Stars and it’s a beast for them (averages more than 4 million viewers every week). Expect a renewal soon.
Verdict: 100% chance of renewal

Update: As of 5/17/12 Best Ink has been renewed for a second season.

Update 2: See the list for June, July, August and September and October here.

Update 3: As of 8/3/12 La La's Full Court Life has been renewed for a third season while Money From Strangers has been renewed for a second season.

Update 4: As of 11/12/12, MTV has canceled America's Best Dance Crew.

Update 5:  As of 11/27/12, Bravo has renewed Don't Be Tardy for the Wedding (Bravo is working on keeping the "Don't Be Tardy" part of the name).

Update 6: As of 1/23/13, History has renewed Swamp People for a fourth season.

Update 7: As of 3/31/13, I am now considering Dance Moms: Miami to be canceled. While things can certainly change each passing day beyond this point makes renewal less likely.

Update 8: As of 4/2/13, Bravo has renewed Real Housewives of New Jersey for a fifth season.

Update 9: As of 5/9/13, VH1 has renewed Tough Love (Apparently they counted the couples series as a season and not a spinoff so they claim this is the sixth season of the show).

Update 10 (Final Update): [7/3/13] After 1 calendar year of inactivity from the end of the season, Punk'd is recognized as being officially canceled.