Monday, July 9, 2012

10 Cable Show Renewal Chances: July 2012

It's that time again only this month I did this post a day early (mostly because I didn't want it to conflict with my weekly ratings post tomorrow).

If you've read my posts from April, May and June then you know that I only choose currently airing cable shows that haven't already been renewed or canceled and I try to choose shows that have aired at least 3 episodes. Also if a post like this doesn't fit what you're looking for then you may want to check my most recent scorecard which has a ton of shows that have ended within the last 8-9 months (Though I will tell you right now that since doing that post, Total Blackout and Eastbound & Down have been renewed so those will be changed for the post later this month).

1. Mob Wives: Chicago (VH1)- I’m going to cut right to the chase, this is a dead show walking. I know it, VH1 knows it (I’m not kidding. They have already reduced the number of weekly reruns from 24 to 13) and now you know it too. This isn’t coming back for a season 2. At this point the few fans (or 522,000 people because that’s the average through 4 episodes) this show still has would be lucky if they get to see a reunion show.

Verdict: 20% chance of renewal

2. Real Housewives of New York City (Bravo)- Clearly the cast overhaul of this show did more harm than good as this is not only RHONY’s lowest rated season ever but it’s also now the lowest rated of all of the current Real Housewives shows. Bravo might try to revamp this show one more time but it may not be worth it if the ratings continue to fall throughout this season.

Verdict: 60% chance of renewal

3. Love & Hip Hop: Atlanta (VH1)- 3 episodes in and it has already blown past Basketball Wives to become VH1’s ‘official’ highest rated show of 2012 (I say official because the original Love & Hip Hop aired just about half of its season 2 episodes in 2012 and that ended its season with an average of 2.761 million viewers compared to Love & Hip Hop: Atlanta’s 2.526 million and Basketball Wives’ 1.956 million. It is very early and Love & Hip Hop: Atlanta still has a very good shot at surpassing this too). Even if VH1 were to issue an early renewal, it would take an equally epic collapse for this show to end up in cancel territory and I don’t see that happening at all.

Verdict: 100% chance of renewal

4. Snooki & JWOWW (MTV)- This show didn’t start off as well as The Pauly D Project but it also hasn’t begun to nosedive in the ratings as hard either. While it’s not the hit show MTV wants or needs at this time, it is still doing better than a lot of its other recent offerings so it’s safe for now but it has to keep its numbers steady for the rest of the season.

Verdict: 70% chance of renewal

5. Hollywood Exes (VH1)- To be honest I’m still out on this show because there just isn’t enough information (even with 3 episodes and 2 previews) to make a good prognostication on. That coupled with this show’s huge ratings range (1.998 million as the high and 440,000 as the low) also make things harder. Unfortunately for this show, the high number I just stated doesn’t count towards the show’s average because it was a preview but the low number does. Still with such conflicting information I have to put it squarely in the middle (though it may be a little safer than not) and I’ll probably make a real prediction next month once things have settled and VH1 stops hacking up the scheduling for this show (by then 7 or 8 of the 10 episodes should have aired and its fate will basically be clear by then).

Verdict: 50% chance of renewal

6. Dance Moms (Lifetime)- This is one of those cases where a network jumped the gun and ordered a spinoff when really the honest truth was that there was something about the original that just couldn’t be copied. While Dance Moms: Miami was a failure, the original continues to be a success even though its pre-July 4th episode had less than impressive numbers.

Verdict: 90% chance of renewal

7. Single Ladies (VH1)- As VH1’s lone scripted offering the expectations for it were always going to be a little bit higher than that of the reality shows. Apparently cutting ties with the main character from season 1 did nothing to hurt this show as it has seen series high ratings the last 2 episodes (mostly as a result of Love & Hip Hop: Atlanta being a strong lead-in). Season 3 is guaranteed as it is looking more like VH1 will begin to move towards negotiations to set up an official announcement.

Verdict: 100% chance of renewal

8. Bunheads (ABC Family)- ABC Family had a rough spring but things are beginning to turn up. Bunheads is one of their new offerings and while it is not exactly a hit, it’s not a flop either. Episode 3 started slipping into uneasy territory and it needs to rebound off of that low (1.379 million, 0.6 demo) while coming off of its 2-week break but for now it’s safe as ABC Family has a bigger worry (Jane By Design) to address.

Verdict: 70% chance of renewal

9. Pretty Little Liars (ABC Family)- (For this prediction I am only evaluating its chances for a season 4 because there were 24 episodes ordered for season 3 and it will be broken up in 2 parts). Season 3 is still fairly young but given ABC Family’s recent struggles, this show has established itself as the clear top show for the network even if its ratings are down a little from last season. I would be surprised if ABC Family renews the show before the second half of this season airs but renewal is guaranteed.

Verdict: 95% chance of renewal

10. Teen Wolf (MTV)- This show doesn’t seem to be growing in season 2 but it has been very stable on a day (Mondays) where MTV never seems to have much going for them. MTV really wants to make a push towards having a stronger slate of scripted shows and this is a part of that vision so I see a season 3 for this.

Verdict: 90% chance of renewal

Update: As of 7/12/12, Teen Wolf has been renewed for a third season.

Update 2: As of 8/3/12, Snooki & JWOWW has been renewed for a second season.

Update 3: See the list for August, September, October, November and December here.

Update 4: As of 8/17/12, ABC Family has ordered more episodes of Bunheads. The new episodes will be aired as the 2nd half of season 1 in early 2013.

Update 5: As of 8/22/12, Single Ladies has been renewed for a third season.

Update 6: As of 9/12/12, VH1 has renewed Hollywood Exes for a second season.

Update 7: As of 10/4/12, ABC Family has renewed Pretty Little Liars for a fourth season.

Update 8: As of 10/10/12, Lifetime has renewed Dance Moms for a third season.

Update 9: As of 11/28/12, VH1 has renewed Love & Hip Hop: Atlanta for a second season.

Update 10: A story posted to a blog affiliated with the Chicago Sun Times on 3/12/13 confirms that Mob Wives: Chicago has been canceled.

Update 11 (Final Update): As of 4/2/13, Bravo has renewed Real Housewives of NYC for a sixth season.


Anonymous said...

The sad thing about Dance Moms Miami is that the people featured ( the kids and instructors- not the moms) are a lot more likeable than the ones in the original show. The Dance instructors actually show affection for all of the kids not just 1 like Abbey in the original does. Plus they celebrate all wins no matter what place the kids come in because they are kids. Abbey feels that sencond place just means the first loser. WTH?! Can't stand her.

I hope ABC Family renews Bunheads because I actually really like the show and I have no idea why.

Anonymous said...

Mob Wives chicago, is the best show ever it will be renewed

Silverstar2154 said...

At this rate you will be really lucky for a reunion.

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