I’m a ratings junkie. I don’t watch any TV shows anymore but ask me about nearly any broadcast or cable show and I can tell you if there’s a chance the show comes back or not.

While many sites evaluate the renewal chances for broadcast shows, not many do it for cable shows and especially not reality shows. I’ve decided to take 10 cable reality shows currently airing that have not already been renewed and I will give my predictions. My niche as always been VH1 reality shows so that’s why more of them appear on this list but as things go along I’m always open to suggestions of other shows.

1. Real Housewives of Atlanta (Bravo)- This season’s ratings are down quite a bit compared to the previous season. Still it’s Bravo’s highest rated show though the margin compared to the Beverly Hills version is razor thin. With the New Jersey version due in a few weeks the claim to being the highest rated Bravo show may soon disappear but that won’t stop a 5th season from coming its way if cast issues are resolved.

Verdict: 90% Chance of Renewal

2. Real Housewives of Orange County (Bravo)- For quite a while this show was at the lower end of the Real Housewives ratings spectrum. It always had good enough ratings to get additional seasons but it never took off like all of the shows that followed it. It also has sentimental value with Bravo for being the first Real Housewives show. Now finally in its 7th season it’s seeing its best ratings yet.

Verdict: 95% Chance of Renewal

3. Shahs of Sunset (Bravo)- This show is not very compatible with Real Housewives of Atlanta but for the most part it has been on par with recent Real Housewives of Atlanta specials (The Kandi Factory and the special Kim & Kroy episode) and at the moment that’s good enough for the show to probably score a second season.

Verdict: 75% Chance of Renewal

4. 16 & Pregnant (MTV)- This show is not nearly as dominant as its Teen Mom spinoffs. Despite its mediocre ratings, it does show great stability. For now that is more than enough to keep the show on for another season at least.

Verdict: 85% Chance of Renewal

5. Rob Dyrdek’s Fantasy Factory (MTV)- Monday nights for MTV are usually disastrous. When compared to most of MTV’s shows this one gets middle of the road ratings but because of the night it airs on and what has happened to their other Monday offerings, there’s no reason to believe this show will come to an end soon.

Verdict: 90% Chance of Renewal

6. The Pauly D Project (MTV)- 2 episodes in and critics and fans are ready to proclaim death for this show. Right now it is way too early to call but a show losing 1.2 million viewers from its premiere in a week is definitely a troubling sign. Still one would be crazy to say MTV was expecting Jersey Shore ratings for this show and where it is now warrants a renewal. Any more huge declines for this show however could be fatal so it needs to be watched.

Verdict: 70% Chance of Renewal

7. Basketball Wives (VH1)- For 3 of the 4 seasons it has aired this show has always emerged as VH1’s highest rated show. Now in its 4th season it can no longer claim that title. Its ratings have also begun to slip from the previous season but a late season surge could still push the show to a franchise high. Barring a radical cast change, this show will be back for a season 5.

Verdict: 90% Chance of Renewal

8. Couples Therapy (VH1)- When VH1 sticks a show on a Wednesday that is almost as bad as a show being planted at 11pm so the odds were not in its favor. After 3 weeks its ratings have bounced from bad to acceptable and back down to bad again. All this does is saves itself from being moved to 11pm right away but a couple more bad outings and its fate will be sealed.

Verdict: 15% Chance of Renewal

9. Mob Wives (VH1)- The second season of this show saw a huge surge from its first season but 12 episodes in the surge is completely gone and now the show is back on par with its first season average. Because the show’s first 5 episodes have inflated the overall average, the show is not in danger of ending from a ratings standpoint. (Related note: The spinoff Mob Wives: The Sit Down only had an order for 7 episodes even though Mob Wives had more than 7 episodes left to air when the show premiered. The 7th episode was moved to a different night and time [Tue, 11pm] for burnoff which confirms that it will not return for another season even if Mob Wives does return).

Verdict: 85% Chance of Renewal

10. Stevie TV (VH1)- The fact that the show airs at 11pm is a sign that it’s a dead show walking and it’s ratings prove it. It’s not very likely that the show will get moved before the end of its run but do not expect to see it return.

Verdict: 10% Chance of Renewal

Update: As of 4/19/2012, Shahs of Sunset and Stevie TV have been renewed for second seasons.

Update 2: As of 5/9/2012, Mob Wives has been renewed for a third season.

Update 3: See the list for May, June, July, August and September here.
 
Update 4: As of 6/12/2012, Basketball Wives has been renewed for a fifth season.

Update 5: As of 8/7/2012, Couples Therapy has been renewed for a second season

Update 6: As of 9/21/12, Real Housewives of Atlanta has been renewed for a fifth season

Update 7: As of 2/19/13, Real Housewives of Orange County has been renewed for an eighth season.

Update 8: (2/28/13) While not official, I'm personally considering Rob Dyrdek's Fantasy Factory to be canceled. MTV has gone 9+ months with no indication of the future of this show (Official word should be due in approximately 2 months [5/30/13] Official word on the show is that the show will return for a sixth season sometime later this year though MTV has not yet released details on when the show will premiere).

Update 9 :  [7/3/13] After 1 calendar year of inactivity since the end of the season, The Pauly D Project is now recognized as being officially canceled.

Update 10 [Final update]: (4/2/14) Though the show has been off the air for nearly 2 calendar years, MTV has renewed 16 & Pregnant for a 5th season. The season will debut April 29th at 11pm (11pm is not considered to be primetime so it may be a burnoff move however ratings may determine if it is moved to a better timeslot during its run).