Thursday, August 9, 2012

10 Cable Show Renewal Chances: August 2012

Back again with 10 more shows. No changes to the format (Call it being stubborn but I refuse to let a couple of low rated hail-mary renewals force me to change up my style. I'll just admit to being wrong...this time) but I've done plenty of updates on the previous posts so you may want to check those out here [April, May, June and July] and if you need to know what is still undecided up to this point then you can take a look at the most recent scorecard too.

1. Big Ang (VH1)- The ratings for this show are not impressive but it does better than Mob Wives: Chicago. Its current season average (629,000 after 5 episodes) is a little below average but the ratings for the most recent episode (715,000) is promising. I’m thinking the closer that season average gets to 700,000 viewers then the better its chances become but it is absolutely not a sure thing for a season 2 just yet.

Verdict: 45% chance of renewal

2. Project Runway (Lifetime)- The only reason why this percentage isn’t a little higher is because it’s not Lifetime’s highest rated reality show anymore (That would be Dance Moms). Its ratings aren’t that far off from Dance Moms either so that’s why you will see this back for another season because Lifetime would be stupid to cancel this when almost every other reality show they try to launch flops.

Verdict: 85% chance of renewal

3. Anger Management (FX)- If I were to only look at ratings alone this would have a higher chance at renewal. However this show has a catch with getting renewed that no other show on TV has. The catch is that if this show gets renewed, it has to get renewed for 90 more episodes (Yes 90 episodes. Can’t believe they let Charlie Sheen talk them into that). Its ratings alone dictate that this show does deserve extra episodes but they don’t justify ordering 90 more episodes either. I’m not sure how FX will get around that but if they go for the 90 don’t be surprised because this is FX’s second highest rated show (the top show is Sons of Anarchy and that will get better ratings than this when it returns next month).

Verdict: 75% chance of renewal

4. Hollywood Exes (VH1)- So last month I said I was going to come back to this thinking that I would have a clearer picture of where this show was going and that was a good decision because I have my answer now. The last 3 episodes (including the one that aired last night) have convinced me that there’s a reasonably decent chance that this show comes back for a season 2. After all the previews, holidays and DirecTV mess this show has managed to find an audience that puts both of VH1’s Sunday shows to shame (can’t touch Monday but that’s a different beast) so I’m liking this show’s chances to return a little more every week.

Verdict: 75% chance of renewal

5. Opening Act (E!)- I’m actually surprised E! has done nothing to this show yet. This show’s ratings are worse than just being bad (most recent episode got 277,000 viewers). They tried giving the premiere the best lead-in they could offer (Kardashians) and it couldn’t do anything with it. Now it’s in the middle of a 2 week break so I doubt this show’s best days are ahead of it. Enjoy the remaining episodes while you can.

Verdict: 5% chance of renewal

6. Mama Drama (VH1)- To be quite honest this really shouldn’t be 20% it should actually be closer to 0 but I can’t go there based on ratings alone. I say that because this show has above average numbers (average of 654,000 viewers through 4 episodes) for the time that it airs. Still all signs from VH1 point to it being a burnoff because they haven’t moved it to an earlier timeslot or another day, they air less than 10 re-runs per week and all of them air between 11pm and 4am, and they don’t re-run episodes that have aired more than 2 weeks before the most recent episode (Update 8/12/12: It appears that starting this upcoming Wednesday, this show will now air at 10pm instead of 11pm. All other burnoff signs mentioned here are still intact so I will not change my prediction). All those burnoff signs still convince me that this is a one season show (Update 8/19/12: Looks like VH1 changed their minds again and pushed the show back to 11pm. SMH).

Verdict: 20% chance of renewal

7. The Glee Project (Oxygen)- This show has had pretty dismal ratings for season 2 and now there is only one episode left. With the penultimate episode only pulling 447,000 viewers, it is going to have to take a finale miracle for Oxygen to try to come up with some reason to justify a season 3. While the critical acclaim is there with this show, the ratings are a bit too low for this show to get by just on that alone.

Verdict: 25% chance of renewal

8. Black Dynamite (Adult Swim)- I don’t really pay that much attention to Adult Swim shows mostly because they air so late and because the bulk of the ratings I see are either Family Guy or American Dad reruns. This show stood out to me because I knew it was new and it’s ratings are actually nothing to sneeze at either (averaging 1.743 million viewers through 4 episodes) so I could see another season for this.

Verdict: 85% chance of renewal

9. Sunday Best (BET)- I was surprised to learn this show has been on for 5 seasons (shows you know much I pay attention to BET) but I was fully aware that this is BET’s highest rated reality show (not that they have many of those). This season is no different and it looks to be doing a little better (averaging 1.8 million over 5 episodes) than last season based on what I can recall so I don’t really see anything stopping BET from renewing this show for another season.

Verdict: 95% chance of renewal

10. Wilfred (FX)- The ratings for this season started out strong and then started sliding back into familiar territory. On almost any other network that airs primarily scripted shows (AMC, TNT, or USA) this show would be in danger but not so on FX. That plus the fact that they renewed Louie (a show with even lower ratings than this) a couple weeks ago means this still has a fairly decent chance of coming back but FX has indicated that they probably won’t make a decision until the end of this season.

Verdict: 70% chance of renewal

Update 1: As of 8/29/12 FX has renewed Anger Management for 90 episodes.

Update 2: See the list for September, October, November December  and January here.

Update 3: As of 9/12/12, VH1 has renewed Hollywood Exes for a second season.

Update 4: This honestly isn't an update at all but more like an oversight. Project Runway should have never been on this list because it already has been renewed through season 15.

Update 5: As of 10/31/12, FX has renewed Wilfred for a third season.

Update 6: As of 12/20/12, Adult Swim has renewed Black Dynamite for a second season.

Update 7: As of 4/2/13, BET has renewed Sunday Best for a sixth season.

Update 8: As of 7/16/13, Oxygen has canceled The Glee Project

Update 9 (8/2/13):  I have reason to believe that the show Big Ang under its current name and format will not return. However VH1 has announced a new spinoff due in September under the title Miami Monkey which will primarily focus on Big Ang and her two adult children as they open a new bar in Miami. VH1 is designating it as a new series and not a retooled season 2 so when the time comes to officially update the presumed canceled status of Big Ang, I will do so.]

 Update 10 (10/1/13): After one calendar year of inactivity from the end of their seasons, Big Ang, Opening Act and Mama Drama are all presumed to be officially canceled.


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