Well this is a first. I actually have a show on here that had it's fate decided just moments ago (I write these posts 1-3 days in advance so that's why I did not substitute it for another show. Also this month was very thin in eligible shows too).

1. All The Right Moves (Oxygen)- I’m going to make this one easy for you. This show has aired 4 episodes and all 4 of them have averaged a 0.0 in the demo (or in literal terms it means nobody watches this show). Last Tuesday’s episode garnered a mere 75,000 viewers. Movies on Saturdays do much better than this show and Oxygen knows they can do better than this too so I don’t expect to see this back (unless some execs at Oxygen are sending a message that they would rather get fired than quit their jobs).

Verdict: 0% chance of renewal

2. Here Comes Honey Boo Boo (TLC)- Whether you have personal disdain for this show or not, you would have to be a fool to think that this show is not getting a season 2. In 6 episodes this is already a bigger hit than their current top rated show (Sister Wives) and TLC has to be feeling like over 3 million viewers is in reach despite this past week’s setback (I personally attribute that to football rather than the DNC and it won’t be against either one this Wednesday so the ratings should tick back up).

Verdict: 95% chance of renewal

3. Married to Jonas (E!)- In 3 episodes (well technically 4 but I won’t see ratings until Tuesday so that won’t be taken into consideration for this post) this show has posted probably the best retention to date behind basically any season of Keeping Up With the Kardashians in recent memory. I can’t see E! not bringing this show back but the real question remains is if a renewal for this show delivers the death blow to Mrs. Eastwood and Company (I’m leaning towards yes on that one).

Verdict: 90% chance of renewal

4. Abby & Brittany (TLC)- Like Here Comes Hone Boo Boo this show was initially slated for a 6 episode run however TLC has already ordered an extra 2 episodes of Here Comes Honey Boo Boo and transitioned to only airing 1 new episode each week while this has not been extended. That of course means there are only 2 episodes left. While the first 2 episodes were fairly decent, the next 2 episodes took a somewhat ugly slide. It’s possible the final 2 episodes could be critical in TLC ordering more episodes but it is also feasible to believe that TLC would treat this show like a mini-series and decide to leave it behind. (Update 9/13/12: TLC has added 2 additional episodes to bring the season 1 episode count to 8).

Verdict: 55% chance of renewal

5. Boss (Starz)- This show is a little strange in that its first season ratings didn’t matter at all because Starz renewed the show for a season 2 before the first episode ever aired. Now we’re at the point where the ratings count for something and this show is certainly no Spartacus. It’s also not a Party Down either but that doesn’t mean its 306,000 viewer average is good. Starz has a very thin scripted bench and that does work in this show’s favor. That plus high critical acclaim makes me think Starz might go for a season 3 but I don’t think its guaranteed either.

Verdict: 55% chance of renewal

6. Alphas (Syfy)- Syfy scripted shows tend to leave its fans biting their nails from the first episode all the way to the last episode because of their ratings. Anytime a show averages a 0.5 in the demo on this network fans have a right to be worried. Surely the worry was increased when Syfy shifted the show to the early 8pm slot. Though the first 8pm episode had terrible numbers, the next 2 episodes began to show remarkable viewer improvement (though the demo remained virtually steady). It is now coming off of a 2 week break and it needs to show more numbers like it’s last new episode (1.726 million 0.5 demo) to have a chance for another season.

Verdict: 50% chance of renewal

7. Gallery Girls (Bravo)- It seems like Bravo keeps trying to make these group of single, career-driven women reality shows happen and it seems like every last one of them flops. This one is no different because it’s averaging 570,000 viewers and 0.3 in the demo. Bravo can definitely spend money on a new replacement rather than try to keep this one around so I wouldn’t expect to see this for a season 2 unless the ratings begin to show a miraculous improvement.

Verdict: 25% chance of renewal

8. Inbetweeners (MTV)- MTV has had a great summer with their scripted shows. The key word in that last sentence is had. Unfortunately Inbetweeners is not a part of that summer scripted success. With ratings through 3 episodes already substantially lower than the already canceled The Hard Times of RJ Berger and fellow British remake Skins, this show seems destined for the TV graveyard as well after this season.

Verdict: 10% chance of renewal

9. Major Crimes (TNT)- TNT did this show a huge favor by having this premiere after the series finale of The Closer. While 7 million viewers for a premiere is a definite renewal for any cable network it has shed about 2 million viewers since then. The good news in that is that the demo is only off about 0.2 points from the premiere to end up at an even 1.0 so this show will see a season 2.

Verdict: 90% chance of renewal

10. Ridiculousness (MTV)- This is quite a messy situation for MTV. The show has come off of hiatus with slightly lower ratings than before the hiatus. However it’s doing worse than their Thursday lineup but better than Real World and Inbetweeners. That means there is yet another modestly rated show on the bubble that MTV has remained silent on. For that reason I can’t say that it has a substantially great chance of coming back, but it is also not a definite goner either.

Verdict: (My original verdict was a 65% chance of renewal because I write these things a day before I post them. However, just within the last hour MTV announced that this show has been renewed for a 20 episode season 3).

Update 1: As of 9/26/12: TLC has ordered additional episodes plus 3 holiday specials for Here Comes Honey Boo Boo. The extra episodes will be designated as the second half of season 1.

Update 2: As of 9/27/12: TNT has renewed Major Crimes for a second season.

Update 3: See the lists for October, November, December and January here.

Update 4: As of 11/12/12, E! has renewed Married To Jonas for a second season.

Update 5: As of 11/20/12, Starz has canceled Boss, however there are preliminary talks to produce a final 2-hour movie to wrap up the storyline.

Update 6: As of 11/28/12, MTV has canceled The Inbetweeners.
 
Update 7: As of 1/16/13, Syfy has canceled Alphas.

Update 8 (11/1/13): After 1 calendar year of inactivity since the end of their respective seasons Abby & Brittany, All The Right Moves and Gallery Girls are all recognized as officially canceled.