Tuesday, December 10, 2013

10 Cable Show Renewal Chances: December 2013


This might as well be the Bravo list because that's what a good majority of these shows are. I think next month I will do a repeat of what I did last January and pick 10 shows that have only aired 1-2 episodes and give predictions based on that. I'll see how it goes but for now here's the last prediction post for the year.

1. Love & Hip Hop (VH1)- Through 6 episodes (The most recent numbers are not counted because I haven’t seen them yet. The same goes for numbers 2,4,5, 6 and 8 on this list) the numbers for this show are up over 1 million viewers from season 3. This is actually the highest rated season of the series and it will end this year being VH1’s second highest rated show (Behind Love & Hip Hop: Atlanta). Sure the cast turnover rate might be exceptionally high with this show but if it was a no brainer to renew the show after last season it would be absolutely idiotic not to renew the show this season.

Verdict: 95% chance of renewal

2. Real Housewives of Atlanta (Bravo)- After probably the strongest start in the history of the franchise, the numbers are starting to taper off a little. Still the show has averaged just about 3.4 million viewers over the last month and few things are as certain as this show getting another season.

Verdict: 95% chance of renewal

3. Snooki & JWOWW (MTV)- This is here only because I said I would redo it and well it was a little difficult to pull together 10 shows. In all honesty I’m not going to change my original prediction on this show. I am still on the fence about it. The ratings have tried to improve from its lows but they haven’t improved by much. MTV has a lot of returning shows due in January and those numbers would indicate that outside of Teen Wolf they are looking at a lot of question marks. I think MTV isn’t very satisfied with the numbers this season and they are going to wait until they see the numbers from those January premieres to see what is working and what can be carried on into the future while they try to recover from a disastrous 2013.

Verdict: 50% chance of renewal

4. Shahs of Sunset (Bravo)- This is one of the more interesting situations on Bravo. This show has been lucky enough to have the first two seasons placed behind the highest rated show on the network. For season 3 it appears Bravo wanted to see how this show performed on its own and believed it had enough of a dedicated audience to pull it off. In that instance I believe Bravo was expecting lower numbers but I don’t think they were expecting numbers below 1.5 million which is what the show has been getting. Lately the numbers have been improving and they did schedule an episode behind RHOA this past Sunday which is sure to be the highest rated episode of the season but I think they expected a little better and they are going to be patient since there is some positive movement in the ratings.

Verdict: 55% chance of renewal

5. Chrissy & Mr. Jones (VH1)- Like Love & Hip Hop, this show is also way up over the previous season. Call it what you will but by now it’s evident that a show has to try really hard to not get renewed on VH1 if it airs on Mondays (every other night is a different beast and it’s every show for themselves). Yes the numbers have spent the last 4 weeks sliding back down but the show is still averaging 2.7 million viewers and it is poised to end 2013 as VH1’s third highest rated show. It will be back but when is anyone’s guess. It could be 2 months from now or it could be 12. I’m not in that guessing game.

Verdict: 90% chance of renewal

6. Real Housewives of Beverly Hills (Bravo)- The season got off to a slow start but the numbers are beginning to come back up to where the network expected it to be. It’s very early in the season but last Monday’s 1.9 million is promising. While this season likely won’t set any ratings records it is beginning to show that it does deserve its place in the franchise and Bravo has shown that they are just fine with that.

Verdict: 80% chance of renewal

7. Ground Floor (TBS)- TBS is a very odd network. They have much more success in being a comedy syndication farm than they do with trying their own hand at shows (whether they make their own or pick them up from other networks). So they have tried their hand at another comedy and gave it a lot of cross promotion (through NBA broadcasts on TNT) and the numbers haven’t been very good. The premiere came in at an underwhelming 1.637 million viewers (0.7 demo). The three episodes since then have pulled 1.2, 1.4 and 1.3 million respectively with a 0.6 demo. This is a little below the level that TBS has shown they are comfortable with (they prefer shows getting a 1.0 demo but may renew a show averaging a 0.7-0.8 demo under some circumstances). The odds are beginning to stack up against this show’s favor especially because the ratings haven’t really begun to show any sign of improvement.

Verdict: 40% chance of renewal

8. Vanderpump Rules (Bravo)- This show also got off to a fairly slow start. Although RHBH is beginning to show some improvement this show isn’t and what looked like a near perfect fit for season 1 and the first few episodes of season 2 is now looking like perhaps it may not deserve the spot it is in. This show really needs to get better though it’s averaging about 1.3-1.4 million viewers each week. I still stand by my belief that if the show can add about 150-200k viewers to that average it would be in a much safer position and would be renewed without hesitation. For now Bravo just has to hope that it will happen.

Verdict: 55% chance of renewal

9. Real Husbands of Hollywood (BET)- This show is not nearly as strong as it was the first season and now it is not doing better than the most recent season of The Game. Still the show has been pulling about 1.7 million viewers with a 0.8 demo over the last month so it’s not a bad number. Perhaps the hype is gone and BET has a show with high expectations premiering in January that they are turning their attention to. There may still be room on their roster for this show even if Being Mary Jane is a legitimate hit but this show will no longer be a high priority for them.

Verdict: 60% chance of renewal

10. Courtney Loves Dallas (Bravo)- This is #10 because I really didn’t have 10 shows for this month and I really don’t like to do predictions on shows that have only aired one episode and while this prediction is obvious it’s not really because of the show. As some people would know, this show is a spinoff of a Style network show (Big Rich Texas I believe and there have been no real announcements to the fate of any Style network show that ended their seasons in the last 6 months but any renewals would likely come from E!, Oxygen or Bravo) and this show was meant to air on the Style network. However the Style network is no more and the money was spent on producing this show so it had to air somewhere (Just like Styled to Rock). So this show premiered with 473,000 viewers and though I can’t be 100% sure this is definitely lower than every premiere Bravo has had this year with  maybe the exception of Styled to Rock (If I had seen ratings for that show I would have done a prediction but I believe it will be canceled). Had this show gotten these numbers on the Style network it would be a hit and perhaps it would have a long life ahead of it. Instead this show ended up getting a raw deal and numbers like this will not cut it on Bravo. Don’t be surprised if this show were to get moved out of its current timeslot and when that happens just know that it will be the confirmation that this show will not return for a season 2.

Verdict: 10% chance of renewal

Update 1: As of 1/30/14, VH1 has renewed Love & Hip Hop for a fifth season.

Update 2: As of 3/6/14, TBS has renewed Ground Floor for a second season.

Update 3: As of 4/8/14, Bravo has renewed Real Housewives of Atlanta (for season 7), Real Housewives of Beverly Hills (for season 5), Vanderpump Rules (for season 3) and Shahs of Sunset (for season 4) for new seasons.

Update 4: As of 4/24/14, BET has renewed Real Husbands of Hollywood for a third season and MTV has renewed Snooki & JWOWW for a fourth season.

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