There are some redos on here from the past 2 months but for the most part this month mostly features freshman shows. I find first season shows to be much more interesting to write on because it gets stale writing on older shows with established fanbases.

1. Vanderpump Rules (Bravo)- I mentioned in the predictions post 2 months ago that I didn’t think the numbers for this show were bad but I did believe it needed to post some numbers over 1.5 million viewers and close the gap between it and Real Housewives of Beverly Hills to be on more solid ground. Over the last month (and particularly over the last 2 episodes) the show has done just that. I feel much more confident about this show seeing a third season.

Verdict: 85% chance of renewal

2. Mob Wives: New Blood (VH1)- I haven’t had a chance to get around to this show until now. So far this show is narrowly averaging above season 3. The new night plus the diminished promotion have not harmed the show at all and what was once a show with great expectations and even greater hype has now managed to transition into a very solid utility player. VH1 tried to make this show more than it was and all of their attempts have failed but the main show is still worthy of breathing life into an overall schedule that sorely needs expansion and success beyond Mondays.

Verdict: 90% chance of renewal

3. 100 Days of Summer (Bravo)- The Chicagoan in me finds fault with this title because here in Chicago we do not have 100 days of summer. It’s more like 58-67 during a good year. Personal opinion aside I must say that networks really need to give up filming reality shows in Chicago. The city is big but to say we have the same...environment as New York, Los Angeles and Miami would be incorrect. Let’s just say the people here hate all that fake, scripted mess and Chicago shows come off as more scripted as usual because the people on these shows are not allowed to go anywhere with that fake, scripted mess and as a result they are typically sequestered to less than 5 locations. I’ve typed all of this without mentioning the ratings. The ratings are bad. An average lower than 650,000 viewers on Bravo is bad. It is losing a chunk of viewers from Shahs of Sunset (which probably has its renewal solidified at this point because of this show) and Bravo knows they can do better. They don’t usually renew shows getting less than 700,000 viewers and this show isn’t close to having a 700,000 viewer average.

Verdict: 25% chance of renewal

4. The Haves and the Have Nots (OWN)- Last year when this show premiered there was some trepidation about it. It was OWN’s first opportunity to get into the scripted show game and Tyler Perry had seen success before on TBS. So there were some expectations but there was also going to be some patience. The first batch of episodes exceeded expectations and as a result 16 more episodes (this batch airing now) were ordered. What has happened since the show returned has been nothing short of astonishing. The show is averaging a massive (by OWN standards) 2.9 million viewers and a 1.0 demo. This most recent episode set series highs with 3.355 million viewers. If the show is not the flagship show of the network then it needs to be because there is no denying how strong this show is becoming

Verdict: 95% chance of renewal

5. Bitten (Syfy)- In my opinion this show could be the wildcard for Syfy’s Monday night roster. This is the newbie so of course there were some expectations but there was also going to be some leeway for slightly disappointing numbers. What has happened is that even with the timeslot switch, the show is still hovering just above 800,000 viewers and a 0.3-0.4 demo. Those numbers are low. They are lower than Being Human (a show that has straddled the line between renewal and cancellation for 2 seasons). However last Monday’s episode outperformed Lost Girl (a show with admittedly low ratings but has outside cost factors working in its favor). Since it has only been one week since the timeslot switch, patience will be paramount and this show’s renewal chances will be judged by how the show performs from here.

Verdict: 50% chance of renewal

6. Real World: Ex-Plosion (MTV)- After a slow start the show is beginning to build some momentum with nearly every episode since the premiere building on the one before it. Wednesday’s episode pulled in a season high 1.548 million viewers and from here any further growth or even a stall in the numbers does put the show in solid renewal territory.

Verdict: 80% chance of renewal

7. SWV Reunited (WE)- It can be argued that this show’s success can be attributed to Braxton Family Values. Why would it not? The show attracts around 1 million viewers per episode. I’m of the mindset that there is a difference between a show getting help to improve the health and/or status of the show and a show getting help to help improve the health and/or status of the network. I feel this is a case of the latter. This show deserves to get renewed and renewal is certainly in its favor because WE does not have the liberty to be picky about any show getting 1 million viewers just because they don’t know how it will do without getting help.

Verdict: 85% chance of renewal

8. Couples Therapy 4 (VH1)- As I mentioned last month, the 900,000 viewers this show got for the premiere was the highest rated episode of the series, since then it has set a new series high (972,000) and the season has averaged 907,000 viewers through 6 episodes. So after 4 seasons the show is finally living up to expectations and since it airs on Thursday there’s no way that this show gets canceled when VH1 has settled for far less in the past.

Verdict: 90% chance of renewal

9. Rich Kids of Beverly Hills (E!)- This is not a very easy prediction to do seeing that only one episode (the premiere and not counting last night’s episode) has aired on its normal night without any additional special programming on E! That makes things a little strange. The premiere ratings were not that high (only 1.079 million with a 0.6 demo). Episode 2 had the freedom to experience slightly lower numbers (913,000 with a 0.5 demo) because it aired a day after the premiere and Episode 3 aired on the same night as the Grammy’s. Then of course there was the Super Bowl break last week. I can’t say I have a good feeling about the numbers I have seen so far. They aren’t great and the show hasn’t found an audience yet. However that is the reason why I think for now this show needs to be a tossup but some things are going to have to turn around quickly or else this will be yet another post-Kardashian failure.

Verdict: 50% chance of renewal

10. Blood, Sweat and Heels (Bravo)- I do not like the trend this show has been experiencing. It had a very strong start for the premiere even though I believed the retention could be a little bit better. The 3 episodes that have aired since (not counting last night because numbers won’t be available until tomorrow) have plummeted and the retention from Real Housewives of Atlanta has only gotten worse. To go from nearly 2.5 million viewers for the premiere to 1.2 million in a span of 4 episodes is deeply troubling to me. What is more worrisome is that RHOA has managed to maintain its strong ratings (over 3.5 million and 2 of those episodes were over 4 million viewers) over the last month so that makes me believe that the viewers aren’t taking to this show. I can see the skew from that first episode being strong enough to possibly lift the show to a renewal but I don’t think there is a major recovery in order so I’m going to believe that this show is in a little more danger than the current numbers may indicate. It becomes a situation of knowing that the show is a major disappointment behind the best lead-in the network can offer and knowing that moving the show anywhere else will foster disastrous consequences.

Verdict: 45% chance of renewal

Update 1: As of 2/17/14, VH1 has renewed Mob Wives for a fifth season.

Update 2: As of 3/20.14, WE has renewed SWV Reunited for a second season.

Update 3: As of 4/7/14, E! has renewed Rich Kids of Beverly Hills for a second season.

Update 4: As of 4/8/14, Bravo has renewed Blood, Sweat and Heels for a second season.

Update 5: As of 4/24/14, MTV has renewed Real World for a thirtieth season.

Update 6: (5/15/14) Although OWN ordered 20 additional episodes of The Haves and the Have Nots, there was no specification made on whether the episodes will be designated as season 2 episodes. Since the season 1 order is well over 30 episodes it is likely that the new episodes will become season 2 episodes. Also, I should have updated this last month but Vanderpump Rules has been renewed for a third season.

Update 7: As of 5/29/14, VH1 has renewed Couples Therapy for a fifth season.

Update 8: As of 5/30/14, Syfy has renewed Bitten for a second season.