Every time I take a month off from this I feel lost and scrambling to keep track of what I've written. This month is no different because I'm aware that I will end up redoing quite a few of these predictions. Most are because December is a month with very few premieres but that's the way it is and I just have to accept it.


1. Snooki & JWOWW (MTV)- What to say about this one? What to say? Well for starters it began the season looking like it was picking up where it left off (1.771 million viewers and a 1.0 demo). In the 2 episodes since the premiere the ratings have tumbled and it is looking like it is not immune to the sharp ratings declines that have plagued MTV’s other shows of late. Last Tuesday’s episode hit a series low 886,000 viewers and its demo has been cut in half since the premiere. Because it’s early one can hope that this was really just one bad week and the numbers will climb back up to respectability but if this isn’t the bottom the show will be in serious danger. For now I’ll just take a stand in the middle and come back to this next month when things are clearer.

Verdict: 50% chance of renewal

2. Sons of Anarchy (FX)- This is actually more to hold a place on the list than anything. We know this is going to get a seventh season. There are many rumors floating around that a seventh season will also be the last. None of that has been made 100% official by FX yet (only that they have the creator under contract for a season 7. The show itself technically isn’t renewed) but they will in due time. There’s nothing more to see here because it is still the highest rated show on FX.

Verdict: 100% chance of renewal

3. Ravenswood (ABC Family)- I’m actually tremendously early with this prediction and I see myself redoing it most likely in February but as it stands ABC Family is in panic mode over this show. They may not have been expecting Pretty Little Liars numbers but they were probably at least expecting a performance similar to The Fosters and Switched at Birth. Since the premiere nearly 3 weeks ago the numbers have plunged to 1.029 million and a 0.4 demo. That number is worse than just about every episode of the first half of Twisted (The show getting postponed for this one in January). For now ABC Family is probably going to hold their noses for the last 2 episodes before the break. Any decision for extra episodes will likely be made when the second batch airs and how those numbers compare to the second half of Twisted.

Verdict: 50% chance of renewal


4. Abby’s Ultimate Dance Competition (Lifetime)- A lot of things can change in a year. The situation surrounding this show has changed somewhat since this time last year as well. One thing that hasn’t changed very much is the ratings. They are pretty much in the same place they were at last year. What is different now is the acknowledgment that Lifetime is okay with these numbers (About 1.1 million viewers with a 0.4 demo). They don’t except the show to do too much more other than keep the seat warm for Dance Moms and since it isn’t messing it up I can’t see why they would suddenly wake up and demand more from this show.

Verdict: 70% chance of renewal

5. Long Island Medium (TLC)- I just now realized that this current set of episodes is the last batch of a very long season 4. Perhaps this massive season order of 30 episodes hurt much more than it helped the show because the numbers are down from where they usually are. Outside of the premiere for this batch last month, only the most recent episode has seen numbers above 2 million viewers. The numbers aren’t bad and just because the show is a little weaker doesn’t mean that it’s finished but perhaps TLC should be a little less aggressive with this show and tone down the overexposure.

Verdict: 75% chance of renewal

6. Teen Mom 3 (MTV)- This show is nowhere near as strong as the first 2 versions of Teen Mom in their heyday. This show is also nowhere as strong as the first 2 versions of Teen Mom during their weakest days. However this is a new landscape at MTV. All of their veteran shows are down and none of their new shows appear to be catching on. This show and its lackluster average (hovering around 1.2 million with a 0.7-0.8 demo over the last month) is horrible in comparison to its predecessors but merely average when compared to the other shows currently airing on the network. This isn’t really a show that MTV can look to for any source of future strength but it’s not really outright begging to be canceled either since it still posts a relatively healthy performance in the demo.

Verdict: 55% chance of renewal

7. Project Runway All Stars (Lifetime)- Strangely enough the numbers through three episodes appear to be up from last season and also not very far off from the last season of Project Runway. I’m not sure if it is because of better retooling or if the remaining Project Runway audience is just a faithful bunch but whatever they are doing is actually working right now. 1.5 million viewers isn’t anything to jump for joy about but for a second tier reality show on Lifetime it is good enough to keep the train rolling for a little while longer.

Verdict: 80% chance of renewal

8. Preachers of LA (Oxygen)- Oxygen has tried desperately for damn near 5 years to find one show that people will actually watch and doesn’t need help from Bad Girls Club to do it. Their confidence was beginning to wane earlier in the year and they had to tell themselves that shows like Best Ink and The Face were hits even though they were only getting 400-500k viewers every week. In 5 episodes this show has not once dipped below 1 million viewers and 3 of those 5 weeks it actually beat The Bad Girls Club. This show is getting renewed. There is no way around that. Oxygen has tried way too hard for far too long to find something that actually works without needing help to act like this show is somehow not living up to expectations.

Verdict: 95% chance of renewal

9. Black Ink Crew (VH1)- As I mentioned on Tuesday, this show has slowly increased its ratings every episode since the premiere. The show has also improved on its season 1 average (Currently at 1.868 million through 6 episodes compared to 1.578 million for season 1) and it continues to inch up every week. It is yet another show in that Monday cycle for VH1 that has the odds for failure stacked against it. The only question surrounding this show will be when season 3 airs not if there will be a season 3.

Verdict: 90% chance of renewal

10. Alaskan Women Looking For Love (TLC)- This show is one of those shows they order where they just get it, give it 6-8 episodes and see how it does. Ironically the finale for this show is tonight but unlike most shows under this format I don’t think TLC has a clear idea of what to do with it. They had reason to be pleased with the premiere (1.580 million viewers with a 0.5 demo) but none of the 4 episodes that have aired since has matched that. Last Sunday’s episode showed some growth from the 3 episodes before it (1.427 million 0.5 demo) so it may come down to tonight’s episode to give TLC the info they need to decide if they should continue this series whether it be a full season 2 renewal or extra season 1 episodes.

Verdict: 50% chance of renewal

Update 1: As of 12/11/13, FX has renewed Sons of Anarchy for a seventh season.

Update 2: As of 1/27/14, Oxygen has renewed Preachers of LA for a second season. They have also confirmed that they are looking to cast for spinoffs (none of which have yet been ordered to series) in New York City, Atlanta, Dallas and Detroit.

Update 3: As of 2/14/14, ABC Family has canceled Ravenswood.

Update 4: As of 2/18/14, TLC has renewed Long Island Medium for a fifth season.

Update 5: As of 3/11/14, VH1 has ordered 5 additional episodes of Black Ink Crew set to air later this month.

Update 6: As of 4/24/14, MTV has renewed Snooki & JWOWW for a fourth season.