It was not a very easy task to try to find 10 shows this month but I managed to pull something together and take a couple of risks as well.

1. Ridiculousness (MTV)- The first half of the season and every episode of the second half up until the last 2 weeks say that the show deserves to be renewed. I’m not sure what has caused the noticeable decline in ratings (going from about 1.6 million to now 1.1 million) but if it keeps up then perhaps the decision to renew the show won’t come so easily for MTV.

Verdict: 60% chance of renewal

2. Marrying the Game (VH1)- The strength of this season lies 100% within the first two episodes of the show but this show also has an advantage in that there is only one episode left to air this season (since two episodes aired last night). The season average for this show (2.309 million through 5 episodes) is declining quite slowly so there is a reasonable chance that the season can end with a season average above 2 million viewers. If that is the case then the likelihood of ending 2013 as a top 5 show is very high and it would be quite difficult to see VH1 not renewing this show especially since number-wise it will end the season improving on its season 1 numbers.

Verdict: 85% chance of renewal

3. Double Divas (Lifetime)- I never got the feeling that the show was doing supremely well in the first half of this season but the numbers were just in the acceptable territory and that’s why it got the order for more episodes. Since the second half has begun airing the numbers are desperately clinging to the low end of what will typically get a show renewed on Lifetime (The last 7 episodes have all averaged between 737,000-1.032 million with a 0.3-0.5 demo). Lifetime’s luck with reality shows really hasn’t changed all that much over the past year so essentially this show’s fate comes down to how much it can help itself so that Lifetime can save face for another season but to do that the numbers do need to improve and try to get back closer to 1 million viewers.

Verdict: 50% chance of renewal

4. Amish Mafia (Discovery)- This one is an easy one. Through 4 episodes this show has settled between 2.4-2.6 million viewers and a 1.1 demo. There is not one cable network around that will turn away a reality show pulling a 1.1 demo so there really isn’t anything to worry about.

Verdict: 90% chance of renewal

5. Total Divas (E!)- Could it be? Is E!’s post Kardashian timeslot curse broken? It might have looked like it over the past month but for the time being there are no Kardashians for this show to depend on. It is far too early for E! to renew this show since they just ordered the extra 6 episodes but if these episodes without Keeping Up with the Kardashians can offer some tangible proof of legitimate interest in this show then the call for a second season will be a simple one because its season average is much too high (Every episode this season has gotten at least 1.3 million viewers) to think about canceling this show given all the problems they are having with trying to find one non-Kardashian reality show that people want to watch.

Verdict: 70% chance of renewal

6. Breaking Amish: LA (TLC)- The numbers for this show are fairly decent and not all that far off from Here Comes Honey Boo Boo or Breaking Amish: Brave New World. It took a slight step back last week but the fact that TLC extended the order of this show by two episodes does show that they aren’t displeased with how this show has performed.

Verdict: 70% chance of renewal

7. Basketball Wives (VH1)- This is early but this isn’t really to make a prediction on this show. It is more to outline VH1’s current situation. So to break it down through 3 episodes (last night’s numbers will be out later today and I’m not updating this post) this show is averaging 2.012 million viewers. Now the average is sure to fall but not by that much. VH1 has shown time and time again that if a show averages over 1.7 million viewers (on Monday because the threshold is below 1 million for every other night) then its renewal is guaranteed unless someone dies or goes to jail over something very serious. That being said, we have a problem here. Every 8pm Monday show and almost all of the 9pm Monday shows have hit that 1.7 million threshold and as I expected basically all of them have been renewed. What happened is that some shows ended up getting short seasons, getting scheduled at or later than 9:30pm, seasons cut in half or just have been postponed just to try to make room for other shows and VH1 seems to be very stubborn about trying to cancel Monday shows because of their shortcomings on every other night.

This show has a long way to go but it’s much harder for the viewer average of show like this to fall below 1.7 million viewers than to already be below that number and try to make up the difference. Being one of the oldest reality shows on VH1’s roster (Equaling Tough Love and technically La La’s Full Court Life) means that other outside factors will have to come into play here but with numbers that are honestly no better or worse than the original Love & Hip Hop and Basketball Wives: LA one has to seriously consider that at this point the only choice is to keep all of these shows and accept their middling numbers or cancel all of these shows and since they are still going with the former you cannot close the book on this one without some hard evidence to prove otherwise. As it stands we’re looking at a 6th season like it or not unless the ratings crumble in the next 9-11 weeks.

Verdict: 75% chance of renewal

8. The Bridge (FX)- I had to try to recollect my thoughts about the situation with FX dramas again. Now that I have I know that this show is no Sons of Anarchy (Good number of total viewers and a high demo). This show really isn’t an American Horror Story either (Decent amount of total viewers with a pretty good demo). I suppose the closest show this one could mirror is The Americans but even the circumstances surrounding this one is a little different. Over the last 4 weeks the audience has been relatively steady at 1.7 million viewers but what is a little troubling is that in that time the demo has slid from an acceptable 0.7 to 0.5 for the most recent episode. FX will renew a comedy with these numbers (though now the FX/FXX split has made that complicated) but that might be getting into the danger zone for a drama. The earlier episodes will probably have a hand in sparing this show but FX better hope that that one 0.5 demo was just a blip and not a signal for interest in this show waning so late in the season.

Verdict: 65% chance of renewal

9. Low Winter Sun (AMC)- I don’t have a very good feeling about this show. Part of me believes that AMC really wants to give this show a chance but another part of me sees that this show loses a huge chunk of viewers from Breaking Bad. What makes matters worse is that the ratings have declined every week since the premiere and hovering at 1.1 million with a 0.4 demo really isn’t going to cut it. There are a lot of questions about the state of AMC’s scripted slate (Well The Walking Dead is a given but Breaking Bad is ending, Mad Men is not the show it should be, they banished Hell on Wheels to Saturdays and then there is the matter of what to do with The Killing) but I don’t think they can look to this show as having some sort of future role in whatever plans they may have.

Verdict: 35% chance of renewal

10. Hollywood Exes (VH1)- Here I am revisiting this once again and a month has done nothing to clarify the ratings situation. The numbers are still fluctuating and the season average is still sliding (now down to 881,000 through 7 episodes not counting Sunday’s episode). I’m thoroughly convinced now that this show getting renewed will depend on if VH1 is serious about expanding nights with original episodes (and they really should be if any of the rumors about forthcoming spinoffs come to fruition) and if this show can be beneficial to any plans for expansion. Personally I'm not sure if it can be because I'm not convinced that it is doing a good job of standing on its own. This show has proven that it needs Monday nights more than Monday nights needs this show.

Verdict: 50% chance of renewal

Update 1: As of 9/17/13, MTV has renewed Ridiculousness for a fourth season.

Update 2: As of 9/20/13, TLC has ordered 12 additional episodes and three specials to extend the season 2 order of Here Comes Honey Boo Boo.

Update 3: As of 9/24/13, FX has renewed The Bridge for a second season.

Update 4: As of 12/6/13, AMC has canceled Low Winter Sun.

Update 5: As of 1/29/14, VH1 has renewed Hollywood Exes for a third season and has greenlit an Atlanta Exes spinoff.

Update 6: (4/10/14) I am not sure how I missed updating that Total Divas renewed for a season 2. Since I have I won't look up when the renewal was made official but I will say that the season 2 prediction is in the April 2014 post. Somehow I also missed Amish Mafia getting renewed as well but there will be no prediction for that since Discovery has confirmed that the show will be returning (they have not specified if new episodes will be for season 4 or a continuation of season 3).

Update 7: (4/29/14) Though VH1 has made no public mention of this, Marrying The Game has been renewed for a third season due to premiere next week (May 7th).

Update 8: (11/1/14) After one calendar year of inactivity from the end of the season, Double Divas is assumed to be officially canceled.