Wednesday, July 10, 2013

10 Cable Show Renewal Chances: July 2013


If it isn't one thing getting delayed around here it's another. Luckily the weekly ratings are only delayed because of last week's holiday and should be up sometime later today. In the meantime there's these shows to mull over. Can't say there are too many fan favorites in this crop but I suppose that's mainly because there are several freshman shows here.

1. The Wanted Life (E!)- When the show started, it was looking like yet another failure in the long line of shows that E! tried to push behind the Kardashians. The last 3 weeks of the show have been promising (749,000, 998,000 and 628,000 not counting the episode that aired on Sunday). E! has to be a little excited but I wouldn’t be surprised if they are hesitant as well since they don’t have evidence that this show can stand on its own (one needs to look no further than season 2 of Married to Jonas). If the growth continues I can see this getting another season but I wouldn’t be very confident of the lifespan of the show after that.

Verdict: 55% chance of renewal

2. Couples Therapy 3 (VH1)- So far this show is actually doing better than the first 2 seasons. Given how horrendous the year has been outside of Mondays, any improvement is a victory for VH1. It’s still early enough in the season for fortunes to change (like the pesky 2 week break wildcard that can break a show) but at least this show has quite a bit of room to fall because it’s not like bad ratings have kept this show from not being renewed (Apparently casting MTV rejects keeps the show alive and there are plenty of those out there).

Verdict: 65% chance of renewal

3. Stevie TV (VH1)- This show started out actually doing about the same as the first season but in a matter of just 5 weeks, the ratings have plummeted. The season average 245,000 viewers does make it the highest rated of the three Friday series VH1 has debuted this year but the numbers for recent episodes put it on par with Best Week Ever and The Jenny McCarthy Show. The finale for this show is this Friday and with its two predecessors still undecided, VH1 needs to decide if it is worth their time to stick with original programming on Fridays in the future.

Verdict: 50% chance of renewal

4. The Fosters (ABC Family)- Outside of two episodes so far (one being the premiere), the show through 5 episodes is doing quite well. It’s right there with Switched at Birth and I don’t think ABC Family could be happier with another show that can legitimately pull 1.7 million viewers. Its run will end sometime within the next month but this will definitely be back.

Verdict: 95% chance of renewal

5. Real Housewives of New Jersey (Bravo)- Let’s start with the obvious here. This is still Bravo’s second highest rated show. What’s different this year is that the numbers are down. They are down to the point to where they are now only slightly better than the two California franchises. I’m no mathematician but since one of those shows was renewed months ago and this still has better ratings I’m going to end with the obvious and say that this too is going to get renewed.

Verdict: 90% chance of renewal

6. King & Maxwell (TNT)- Like many scripted shows, this one is in that precarious position of having acceptable total viewers but less than stellar demos. This show skews a little old (averaging 2.7 million viewers with a 0.5 demo). The total viewers would put it on par with a show like Dallas which is acceptable and TNT does prefer older skewing shows as well (their target demo is adults 25-54). 3 crucial things hurt this show. First, it’s a freshman show and it’s not showing any signs of growth (the last 3 weeks have been stable but stable is not growing). The second is that it’s averaging a 0.5 demo (Southland was canceled with a 0.5 demo). Third is that the show airs on Mondays behind Major Crimes which has far better numbers than this (That show is not as strong as last season but it is certainly not in any danger of being canceled). It does have some time to turn things around but right now I wouldn’t say that the show is in a particularly safe position.

Verdict: 40% chance of renewal

7. I’m Having Their Baby (Oxygen)- This show was a surprise sleeper hit for Oxygen in season 1. Yes it had a Bad Girls Club lead-in but it was also saddled with an 11pm timeslot too (that’s why I don’t have a very great recollection of the ratings but there were quite a few episodes above 650,000 viewers). This season has been a total disaster. Besides the premiere (which got 484,000 viewers) this show hasn’t seen 300,000 viewers once and only one of the previous 3 episodes have gotten above 250,000 viewers. I want to believe that Oxygen has standards and since all of the shows they have renewed this year have at least averaged more than 350,000 viewers, the prospects for this show are looking grim.

Verdict: 20% chance of renewal

8. True Blood (HBO)- This show is 6 seasons old. For a cable show that’s a ridiculously long run (especially since HBO really does air only one season per year). No HBO hasn’t renewed it yet but they will simply because the show still does well (right around 4 million with a 2.2 demo) and because HBO will let it be known when the final season occurs with great fanfare.

Verdict: 95% chance of renewal

9. Princesses: Long Island (Bravo)- The ratings for this show appear to hover between 700,000 and 950,000 viewers. Normally that would be a good thing for a Bravo show but it’s not particularly good for a show that airs behind a Real Housewives show. Since the numbers aren’t bad it wouldn’t be wise to say that this is a dead show walking but this is one of those shows where anything could happen and it wouldn’t be all that surprising.

Verdict: 50% chance of renewal

10. Twisted (ABC Family)- After a decent start the numbers have begun to dip and now they are in the same territory as The Lying Game (That dreaded 1.2-1.4 million with a 0.4-0.5 demo). If the two most recent episodes are a fluke then the show has a chance to at least prove itself with extra episodes. If the last 2 episodes are indicative of what’s to come then ABC Family is going to have some kind of headache to deal with.

Verdict: 55% chance of renewal

Update 1: As of 7/15/13, HBO has renewed True Blood for a seventh (which will be the last) season.

Update 2: As of 7/30/13, ABC Family has ordered additional season 1 episodes for The Fosters and Twisted.

Update 3: As of 9/20/13, TNT has canceled King & Maxwell.

Update 4: As of 10/11/13, ABC Family has renewed The Fosters for a second season.

Update 5: As of 11/12/13, VH1 has renewed Couples Therapy for a fourth season.

Update 6: As of 2/28/14, VH1 has canceled Stevie TV.

Update 7: As of 4/8/14, Bravo has renewed Real Housewives of New Jersey for a sixth season.

Update 8: (10/1/14) After one calendar year from the end of their respective seasons, both The Wanted Life and Princesses: Long Island are officially recognized as canceled.
  
Update 9: (11/1/14) After one calendar year from the end of the season, I'm Having Their Baby  is officially recognized as canceled.

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