Friday, May 10, 2013

10 Cable Show Renewal Chances: May 2013


This post was extremely close to not happening because I forgot that today was the 10th. Fortunately I was able to scrape together 10 shows that I already knew I had some general opinions on so while this month's post might be a little light on details there should still be enough to satisfy or agitate your curiosity.

Of course there's always old posts to look back on (including an update I made just yesterday to the one of those old posts from either last May or June).

1. Find Me My Man (Oxygen)- This is a show that has similar ratings to season 1 of Best Ink (season 2 started higher but the numbers have fallen off recently) and The Face. Both of those shows were renewed with numbers like those (near or above 450,000 viewers) so for that reason I can’t really go against recent history and say that the show deserves to be canceled. It might not really earn a renewal but it doesn’t deserve a cancellation either.

Verdict: 50% chance of renewal

2. T.I. & Tiny: The Family Hustle (VH1)- I’ve said for the 3 seasons that this show has existed that it is completely lead-in dependent. For the 2 episodes that didn’t have Love & Hip Hop: Atlanta as a lead-in the show averaged a Monday cancel worthy 1.3 million viewers. In the 3 episodes since then the show has averaged 2.6 million. It’s move to 9pm is only a quick fix (it will move back to 10pm on the 27th) but it’s making the most of that time and positioning itself to end the season as VH1’s second highest rated show of the year (In my opinion it won't finish the year lower than #3 because only Hit The Floor has the potential to overtake it since it will have help from Love & Hip Hop: Atlanta. VH1 doesn't have another show that can pull at or above 2.6 million weekly because Basketball Wives [Miami] has never done it and Single Ladies has always needed help to get close).

Verdict: 90% chance of renewal

3. Awkward (MTV)- After stellar premiere ratings, the show has taken an inexplicable nosedive since then. While I’m not buying into the notion that 1.3 million viewers and a 0.6-0.7 demo is into cancellation territory it is certainly worrisome for MTV and they need to reassess if it was truly worth it for them to change what viewers had already grown accustomed to because something is off and I’m not sure what that thing is.

Verdict: 65% chance of renewal

4. Don’t Be Tardy (Bravo)- I don’t know what Bravo is thinking in terms of this show. After a decent start its numbers have also fallen off and now they are just straddling the low end of renewal territory (though this week ticked back up to 943,000). It’s my thought that this show might need help if they want to save it but at the same time it’s not an urgent and pressing matter and if it can’t find a ratings floor right where it is then it needs to go.

Verdict: 60% chance of renewal

5. I’m Married To A... (VH1)- No one should be surprised that this show is not doing well (its averaging 373,000 viewers through 3 episodes). What people should be surprised about though is that VH1 is currently airing 8 other shows and this show has higher ratings than 4 of those shows (none of the 4 have season averages above 205,000 viewers). I feel like VH1 feels like they are about ready to give up Sundays but with Wednesdays and Fridays pulling in atrocious numbers you have to wonder why they just can’t put in more effort into cultivating one night that may not be as strong as Mondays but can at least attract some acceptable viewer levels. While I don’t think this gets renewed it would be highly unfair if VH1 acts like this needs to be canceled tomorrow as well.

Verdict: 30% chance of renewal

6. Married To Medicine (Bravo)- To me this show is an even more suspect Shahs of Sunset. It spent most of the season behind Real Housewives of Atlanta and did what it needed to do. Unlike Shahs of Sunset, I’m not sure this has the potential to grow very much in season 2 unless its placed with RHOA again. Since Bravo is struggling mightily with every show other than this one and Real Housewives of Orange County this gets a season 2 and it won’t be a difficult decision for them to make.

Verdict: 95% chance of renewal

7. The Client List (Lifetime)- Some weeks this show outperforms Army Wives and other weeks it doesn’t. The buzz from season 1 doesn’t seem to be as strong for season 2 but with Army Wives showing its age, Lifetime exposing its true loyalty in utility player Drop Dead Diva and an untested but very hyped rookie forthcoming in Devious Maids I would think that they just need to go with the sure thing and give this show a third season.

Verdict: 85% chance of renewal

8. The Kandi Factory (Bravo)- No matter what anyone thinks, Bravo moving this show to Sunday is too little-too late. The damage from Tuesdays is already done and they know that Married to Medicine only has a few episodes left. They ordered a high profile dud and they need to get over their Real Housewives favoritism pride and start letting the duds go. Since they are too scared to start trimming down the main franchises then they need to start by cutting the underperforming spinoffs and this one is first in line.

Verdict: 25% chance of renewal

9. Off Pitch (VH1)- Anytime a show goes below 100,000 viewers and hits a 0.0 demo the show is unequivocally dead in my eyes. It doesn’t matter if the ratings were way up this week (well way up for this show’s standards because 195,000 viewers and a 0.1 demo is still horrible). This show is not coming back. It is dead last and there is not one reason good, bad or otherwise that could be used to support this show coming back. This show does worse than the 2 Friday shows and its ratings are so bad that it’s impossible to believe that it airs on the same network as anything that airs on Monday so yes I’m pessimistic and I’m throwing in another 0 to add to the trophy case of futility for this show.

Verdict: 0% chance of renewal

10. What Would Ryan Lochte Do? (E!)- The show got off to a decent start (807,000) but I worried that it couldn’t really hold that. Well my worries were realized because the two episodes since then have pulled in a very low 392,000 and a somewhat better but still troubling 476,000 viewers. Perhaps it can try to slowly climb back up but the execs at E! are no doubt still banging their fists on their desks wondering why no one wants to watch anything not related to an awards show or the Kardashians on their network. It looks like they will be going back to the drawing board for this one but there is still some time left to improve so I can’t call it dead just yet. It’s not looking very good though.

Verdict: 40% chance of renewal

Update 1: As of 6/16/13, VH1 has ordered additional episodes to extend season 3 of T.I & Tiny: The Family Hustle.

Update 2: (August 2013) MTV has renewed Awkward for a fourth season.

Update 3: As of 9/19/13, E! has canceled What Would Ryan Lochte Do?

Update 4: As of 11/1/13,  Lifetime has canceled The Client List

Update 5: As of 2/19/14, Bravo has renewed Married to Medicine for a second season.

Update 6: As of 3/12/14, VH1 has renewed T.I. & Tiny: The Family Hustle for a 4th season.

Update 7: As of 4/8/14, Bravo has renewed Don't Be Tardy for a third season.

Update 8: (5/31/14) After one calendar year of inactivity from the end of their respective seasons, both Off Pitch and The Kandi Factory are officially recognized as canceled.

Update 9: (8/5/14) After one calendar year of inactivity from the end of their respective seasons, both Find Me My Man and I'm Married to A... are officially recognized as canceled.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Matic
What is the real scoop on the return of Basketball Wives? I am not a huge fan of it, but it sure seems as though it has been a minute since it has been on.

Silverstar2154 said...

I've been hearing August but VH1 released their tentative summer schedule a few days ago and it wasn't on it. That could be because VH1 might be planning to add a few extra episodes to Love & Hip Hop: Atlanta (they have been still filming that as recent as a few days ago) so it will be whenever that show is over.

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