A new year means a new crop of shows with very limited information to go on. Like last January's post I will be spending it doing a blind predictions post. I chose 10 shows that premiered within the last 10 days and made predictions on the 1-3 episodes that have aired for those shows in that time. Following the formula of last year's post, none of these shows will have a prediction lower than 30% (though no show on this list has a prediction lower than 40%) and no show on this list will have a prediction higher than 70%.

The guide is as follows:

30%- Looking dire

40%- In danger

50%- Too early to call

60%- Leaning safe

70%- Looking good

1. 100 Days of Summer (Bravo)- Shahs of Sunset might be trying to hang in there but I don’t know what Bravo was thinking by trying to put a new show behind it. While 724,000 viewers isn’t exactly dead on arrival it is pretty close. I do know that any kind of drop for this show will be lethal because it’s not in a very good place to begin with. Perhaps Bravo got a little bit too ambitious here but for now they are going to suck it up and see what they have going here.

Verdict: 40% chance of renewal

2. Kim of Queens (Lifetime)- This show is looking to be one of those shows that needs to be watched. Because it premiered last week I have 2 episodes instead of one to go on. The first episode had a fairly decent showing (1.643 million with a 0.5 demo). Week 2 told a different tale (1.285 million 0.4). As it stands the show does have good enough numbers to get renewed but that drop makes me think that the bleeding might not be over and any coronations for this being a hit show would be highly premature.

Verdict: 50% chance of renewal

3. Ridiculousness (MTV)- The first 2 episodes came in with 1.2 and 1.4 million viewers respectively. This is about even with what the episodes from the second half of season 3 have been doing which could be a good or a bad thing. On the surface steady is good so I’m going to have to believe that this show isn’t giving MTV anything to be disappointed about yet.

Verdict: 60% chance of renewal

4. Couples Therapy (VH1)- Last week’s premiere came in at an even 900,000 viewers. Now that may not look like much but when you take into consideration that those 900,000 viewers was the highest rating the show has ever gotten then you have to realize that there is no way the show is going away. That 900k all but guarantees that the show will already finish with a higher season average than the first 3 seasons and because the show doesn’t air on Monday its renewal is pretty much solidified as long as VH1 can keep finding people willing to look foolish for money (and that is more bountiful than air).

Verdict: 70% chance of renewal

5. Blood, Sweat and Heels (Bravo)- I don’t want to say that I am not sold on this show but I will say that I do think that the 55% retention from a much larger than normal RHOA is something that can’t be ignored. Still 2.5 million viewers for a premiere is still 2.5 million viewers and that will get the show renewed no matter how you shake it but when I see a number like that I feel like I am looking at another RHOM, Shahs of Sunset and Married to Medicine where the show can get decent ratings behind RHOA and would otherwise struggle without that lead-in. That still bodes well for this show as long as the overall numbers stay strong but it will be a suspect show in my book.

Verdict: 60% chance of renewal

6. Bad Girls All Star Battle (Oxygen)- Now I have heard that quite possibly this show might already be renewed but Oxygen is highly secretive about making details like that official so without that word I’m going on the assumption that a season 3 is not yet official. Though in the case of this show that doesn’t really matter. After a premiere of 1.04 million viewers it might as well be official because as you all know Oxygen will never cancel a show getting 1 million viewers even if it is just for one episode.

Verdict: 70% chance of renewal

7. Single Ladies (VH1)- There was no way that this show wasn’t going to come in with higher premiere ratings than seasons 1 or 2 (2.6 million for the season 3 premiere compared to 1.8 million for seasons 1 and 2). The lead-in this show got was much stronger (though it did spend a great majority of season 2 behind Love & Hip Hop: Atlanta, the premiere was not paired with that show and that is the cause for the lower premiere numbers). So the show is going to be in a good place for at least the first half of the season. Whatever happens in the second half is not going to be enough to put this show in danger.

Verdict: 70% chance of renewal

8. Dance Moms (Lifetime)- Who would ever believe that this show is in any kind of danger? This is Lifetime’s darling and though I think it is highly overexposed, it is overexposed for a reason. Lifetime knows they have something with this show and they are not going to stop until they don’t have anything to run with and 2 episodes are more than enough to tell me that much.

Verdict: 70% chance of renewal

9. Real World: Ex-Plosion (MTV)- I don’t think MTV is too happy about the 949,000 viewers the premiere got but on that same note they really can’t be all that disappointed either. Things could shake out where this show ends up right back in the middle of the pack and it is very obvious that MTV wants to try to drag this show to a 30th season. They’re close now so hopefully their plans aren’t derailed before it happens but still a long way to go on this one.

Verdict: 50% chance of renewal

10. My Strange Addiction (TLC)- This one doesn’t actually seem fair because it has aired 3 episodes over the last week but it’s here and I’m doing it (mostly because I can’t do Being Mary Jane on BET. That show was renewed before the first episode aired). Anyway the 2 episodes last week got 1.6 million viewers and 1.3 million viewers respectively. Those numbers aren’t mind-blowing but they are acceptable. Wednesday’s episode climbed to a much more respectable 1.9 million viewers. That of course puts the show in the top tier for TLC so more numbers like this Wednesday’s episode and it gets renewed. If the show falls to last week’s numbers then the show probably still gets renewed anyway because that isn’t exactly cancellation territory.

Verdict: 70% chance of renewal

Update 1: As of 2/28/14, VH1 has announced that they will not be renewing Single Ladies for a fourth season and the final episode of the series will air on March 24th.

Update 2: As of 4/8/14, Bravo has renewed Blood, Sweat and Heels for a second season. Also, Centric has announced that they will pick up the fourth season of Single Ladies. Details on when the fourth season will air are currently unavailable.

Update 3: As of 4/24/14, MTV has renewed Ridiculousness for a fifth season and Real World for a thirtieth season. Also, Centric has confirmed that they will produce and air a fourth season of Single Ladies.

Update 4: As of 8/20/14, Lifetime has renewed Kim of Queens for a second season.