If I remember correctly from last year, August and September are 2 of the 3 worst months with me trying to make this post. I was able to find 10 shows to talk about this month but it may be a challenge for next month because so far I'm not seeing very many cable shows coming along in the next 4 weeks.

1. The Newsroom (HBO)- It’s a well known fact that HBO has seen their share of troubles with trying to launch shows after True Blood (not that it keeps them from renewing those shows for at least 1 additional season). This show is not really a smash hit but it’s not a disaster either. Sure it could be doing better behind True Blood (averaging 1.9 million and a 0.7 demo over 4 episodes this season) but they have seen much worse. Perhaps a renewal is imminent or they could just wait to see how the first episode without True Blood fares (not that Boardwalk Empire is a bad replacement) but either way this gets another season.

Verdict: 90% chance of renewal

2. Here Comes Honey Boo Boo (TLC)- It looks like all the hype from a few weeks ago has finally died down and the dust has appeared to settle on this show. Outside of the first 2 episodes (getting 2.8 and 2.9 million with a 1.0 demo), the show has been pulling in a little over 2 million viewers each week. The demo hasn’t dropped very much from the first 2 episodes (Only to a 0.8 demo with the exception of one episode last week which also got a 1.0 demo) and there isn’t much that TLC should be ashamed of with the performance of this show. So while this show isn’t going to be the next Duck Dynasty or Jersey Shore it is highly likely that this gets a third season.

Verdict: 80% chance of renewal

3. Hollywood Exes (VH1)- To be honest I wanted to wait on making a prediction for this show but eligible shows were a little on the thin side this month. I may redo it next month but I’m also getting the feeling that another month of numbers might not help all that much. This show is so far skating by on the strength of the first episode (the only Monday episode which tallied 1.784 million). Its Sunday episodes have fluctuated between 667,000 and 957,000 viewers and it gets beat consistently by La La’s Full Court Life. Since the numbers have yet to stabilize and the average keeps dropping its renewal rests on what VH1’s expectations for the show are. If they are judging it on the 2010 Sunday average scale (the last time African-American targeted shows aired on Sundays) then the show will come dangerously close to that 950,000 viewer average line (which would also put the show below its season 1 average as well). If they are going by the 2012/2013 scale then I don’t see the average plummeting below 700,000 viewers and it should get another season if that is the case. Talks of a spinoff may also put the show over the renewal line to save face but my thoughts on that are best reserved for another day.

Verdict: 55% chance of renewal

4. The Challenge: Rivals II (MTV)- There was a time in the not so distant past where MTV would double or even triple up renewals for this show. What happened is the first season after the renewal they ended up getting burned with series low numbers only to have to overcompensate with the last season of the deal. This season wasn’t like that. There were a few questions hanging over the fate of this show last season but this season is more of an up season with each of the last 4 episodes scoring at or above 1.4 million viewers. I don’t think MTV does a double renewal on this one but I do think they go for another season to keep the poor saps who keep coming back every season on the payroll for one more year.

Verdict: 85% chance of renewal

5. Below Deck (Bravo)- This show is one of those luck of the draw shows that could have gone absolutely anywhere on the schedule. It’s not compatible with anything they have so if it was a failure then there was no love lost and if it was a success then it would be a pleasant surprise. This show ended up behind Real Housewives of Orange County and is turning into a pleasant surprise with the numbers slowly climbing a little bit each week (and the most recent episode delivering 1.436 million). The momentum might get skewered on Monday with a new lead-in (Real Housewives of Miami) but if there were ever a time for the show to prove its worth then now will certainly be the time (RHOM won’t do the show very many favors as it may struggle to get to 1.4 million even with the help from what will likely be the 3 highest rated RHOC episodes of the season) and this upcoming challenge may be the reason why Bravo hasn’t already renewed the show.

Verdict: 65% chance of renewal

6. Major Crimes (TNT)- Barring the emergence of a breakout show, this show will end the season and 2013 as TNT’s second highest rated show in total viewers (Behind Rizzoli & Isles) and perhaps 3rd in the demo (Behind the show I just mentioned and Falling Skies). The demo skew is quite old for the high number of viewers it gets (about 5 million viewers each week) but the total viewers are quite hard to ignore and the demo really isn’t that bad (averaging a 0.8 demo over the last 4 episodes). TNT is going to renew at least one show that gets lower ratings than this and since this show is only in season 2, there isn’t a justifiable reason to keep this show from getting renewed.

Verdict: 95% chance of renewal

7. Catfish: The TV Show (MTV)- The numbers for this show have been all over the place this season. It has had good weeks and it has had a couple of disappointing episodes thrown in there as well (like the most recent episode with 1.579 million viewers). Still even the lows of this show runs circles around most of the pitiful offerings from the winter and spring and MTV is still on shaky ground with their shows. It does just well enough to continue on and that’s all anyone can ask for.

Verdict: 75% chance of renewal

8. Drop Dead Diva (Lifetime)- This show has been fairly consistent all season with most of the season averaging above 2 million viewers and a 0.7 demo. Sunday is the finale and it is again on the bubble because the numbers aren’t much different from last season. What complicates things further is that newcomer Devious Maids has already surpassed it in the ratings. There is also the lingering issue of The Client List which has very similar numbers to this show but has yet to be renewed because of negotiations and the pregnancy of the lead actress. This show may just come down to what Lifetime feels they need going forward. If they only want late spring/summer scripted shows then there may not be room for this veteran. If they want to expand into fall then there may be a chance but it’s not easy to know where Lifetime may want to go.

Verdict: 50% chance of renewal

9. Interior Therapy with Jeff Lewis (Bravo)- I wouldn’t call this a forgotten Bravo show but if you were to ask people to name 5 non- Real Housewives Bravo shows I’m not sure this show comes to mind. That doesn’t mean that the show hasn’t created a space for itself. The show has consistently delivered over 900,000 viewers over the last month (with the most recent episode getting 1.137 million). On a night with nothing else on to support this show it is a decent performance so it should return if that is what Bravo wants.

Verdict: 75% chance of renewal

10. The Vineyard (ABC Family)- So to be honest I’m not sure what ABC Family was thinking here. This show doesn’t have the benefit of airing behind Pretty Little Liars. No, this show ended up airing behind the show that airs after Pretty Little Liars (Twisted). Twisted is just barely staying afloat (and luckily received its backorder before the ratings began to drop) and this show doesn’t really stand a chance. With a weak premiere of only 735,000 viewers, the numbers are growing more disastrous with this past Tuesday’s episode only reaching 417,000 viewers. This show is on the chopping block and the shows in front of it are about to end for the summer so any chance it had to save itself would have been now and it’s not doing that.

Verdict: 10% chance of renewal

Update 1: As of 8/15/13, TNT has renewed Major Crimes for a third season.

Update 2: As of 8/27/13. Bravo has renewed Below Deck for a second season.

Update 3: As of 9/4/13, HBO has renewed The Newsroom for a third season.

Update 4: As of 9/20/13, TLC has ordered 12 additional episodes and three specials to extend the season 2 order of Here Comes Honey Boo Boo.

Update 5: As of 10/25/13, MTV has renewed Catfish: The TV Show for a third season and Lifetime has renewed Drop Dead Diva for a sixth season.

Update 6: (12/6/13)  MTV has renewed The Challenge for season 25. Though no formal announcement other than the confirmation of a new season was made, the decision was made official as of 10/1/13.

Update 7: As of 1/29/14, VH1 has renewed Hollywood Exes for a third season and has greenlit an Atlanta Exes spinoff.

Update 8 (Final Update): (11/1/14) After one calendar year from the end of their respective seasons both Interior Therapy with Jeff Lewis and The Vineyard are both officially recognized as canceled.