Wednesday, June 26, 2013

10 Cable Show Renewal Chances: June 2013

Better late than never with this I suppose. I typed this all up the day before I intended to post it so the numbers mentioned only go up to June 9th. I haven't changed anything that I typed from that day but if I were to say that anything has changed then I would improve the chances of the #2 show on this list and lower the chances of the #9 show. Every other show in my opinion has remained the same in my eyes in their chances of getting renewed or canceled.

1. Real Housewives of Orange County (Bravo)- This is a show that is in its 8th season and still chugging along. Even as the other franchise cities (outside of Atlanta and New Jersey) have visible cracks in their foundations this one keeps moving right along. The numbers appear to hover between 1.7-2 million viewers and since that was good enough to get Beverly Hills another season it’s good enough to get this show a 9th season.

Verdict: 90% chance of renewal

2. Hit the Floor (VH1)- Honestly this wasn’t going to be a choice for me this month but a lack of eligible shows put me into a little bit of a corner. That being said the show is averaging 1.604 million for its first 2 episodes. Its numbers are satisfactory except for the fact that it is trending lower than the first 2 seasons of Single Ladies through this point and the show is losing a little more than a million viewers from Love & Hip Hop: Atlanta. There’s still a long way to go and with minimal competition going forward for the remainder of the summer the numbers do have a lot of room to improve. Right now things aren’t excellent but they are far from disastrous and I will probably redo this next month.

Verdict: 65% chance of renewal

3. Zach Stone Is Gonna Be Famous (MTV)- Poor MTV, they really can’t seem to catch a break with their new scripted shows. This show was basically doomed from the outset and the last 4 weeks have been a disaster with all 4 episodes coming in just below 400,000 viewers and getting between a 0.1 and a 0.2 demo. So the writing is on the wall and the show really doesn’t have a chance to come back.

Verdict: 10% chance of renewal

4. Breaking Amish: Brave New World (TLC)- This show isn’t making the waves that Breaking Amish did last year but the numbers so far this season (1.996 million average through 4 episodes) aren’t anything that TLC will feel disappointed about. The show does have an audience and the numbers are acceptable for a high profile night like Sundays so as long as the show can continue to prove that it can hang with the other cable powerhouses on this night then TLC will give it another chance.

Verdict: 75% chance of renewal

5. Love & Hip Hop: Atlanta (VH1)- This is a formality more than anything. Through 7 episodes the show is averaging 2.865 million viewers through 7 episodes. The next closest show for the year (Family Hustle) averaged 2.242 million for the entire season (which was also ironically 7 episodes). No other show that VH1 will premiere this year will come close to this show and since the show is VH1’s highest rated show by a mile there’s absolutely no reason other than unforeseen circumstances that will cause this show to not get renewed.

Verdict: 95% chance of renewal

6. Newlyweds: The First Year (Bravo)- I feel like this show should be doing a little better than it is. The ratings aren’t horrible (averaging 974,000 viewers over the first 5 episodes) but they aren’t stellar either considering that the show airs behind Real Housewives of Orange County. The numbers are steady so that’s a plus but like many post-Real Housewives programs there is an issue with shows having trouble standing alone. There may be an opening because RHOC doesn’t really have a companion series like RHOA or RHBH so this could possibly fill that void if the numbers hold up.

Verdict: 70% chance of renewal

7. Bad Girls All Star Battle (Oxygen)- Here are the numbers for the first 3 episodes of this show in order, 1.743 million, 1.112 million and 821,000. I’m sure Oxygen is concerned about how severe the drop is because now the show isn’t very far off from being in Love Games territory. Still, given their overall woes and their much lower renewal threshold than from previous years this show is still quite a long way off from being in danger of getting canceled. So I guess that as long as they scrape together more girls willing to do the show (and that shouldn’t be hard) I suppose Oxygen will cry in their sleep about why they can’t find another hit show to rival Bad Girls Club and take whatever they can get that is over 500,000 viewers.

Verdict: 65% chance of renewal

8. I’m Married to A... (VH1)- When I made my prediction last month this show wasn’t in a very good place. It wasn’t among the worst of the crop but it wasn’t looking very great either. Since then 2 things have happened. The first thing was VH1 quietly moved the show to Tuesdays. The second thing was that the ratings started to increase. Since the move to Tuesdays, the show has improved on its Sunday numbers by over 100,000 viewers and the overall season average has increased to 431,000 viewers. The numbers are still low but with a new night and unclear expectations I do have to improve the prospects of this show a little bit but I’m honestly not certain if it will come back. I will acknowledge that there is a chance though.

Verdict: 45% chance of renewal

9. The Show With Vinny (MTV)- When this was announced I wasn’t very sure why Vinny needed a spinoff. When I heard what this was about I really didn’t see the purpose of it. Now I see the viewers agree (the last 5 episodes have averaged 721,000 viewers and a 0.3 demo) and MTV should just leave these things to Rob Dyrdek because there’s no use for 2 shows with exactly the same premise here. They have bigger problems but this is a problem too so it should be treated as such.

Verdict: 35% chance of renewal

10. Tabitha Takes Over (Bravo)- This show is in that group of shows that Bravo wishes was a little stronger so they could depend on it more. This show’s numbers have bounced around quite a bit but the last 4 episodes have settled in around 840,000 viewers. Generally that earns a show of this type another season on Bravo so as long as Bravo and Tabitha want to keep going then the show will come back.

Verdict: 70% chance of renewal

Update 1: As of 6/26/13, MTV has canceled Zach Stone Is Gonna Be Famous. The final three episodes will air this week with one airing Thursday and the final 2 airing on Saturday.

Update 2: As of 7/15/13, VH1 has renewed Hit The Floor for a second season.

Update 3: As of 10/7/13, Bravo has renewed Newlyweds: The First Year for a second season.

Update 4: (November 2013) Oxygen has renewed Bad Girls All Star Battle for a second season.

Update 5: As of 1/14/14, VH1 has renewed Love & Hip Hop: Atlanta for a third season.

Update 6: (2/21/14) Breaking Amish: Brave New World will return as a 6 episode spinoff series titled Breaking Amish: Return to Amish. The location of the show will change but the cast will remain the same.

Update 7: As of 3/10/14, Bravo has renewed Real Housewives of Orange County for a ninth season.

Update 8: (8/5/14) After one calendar year of inactivity from the end of their respective seasons both I'm Married to A... and Tabitha Takes Over are officially recognized as canceled.

Update 8: (10/1/14) After one calendar year of inactivity from the end of the season, The Show with Vinny is officially recognized as canceled.